15-20 Beach 12th St · New York, NY 11691

$350,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1945 4,450 sqft lot Est $580k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

SHORT SALE SUBJECT TO THIRD PARTY APPROVAL.

Key facts

• 4,450 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,770/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 4702% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.28%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $579,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15-05 Beach 11 St	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,444 (+5%)	0mo	$542,000	$375	90
1507 Beach 11th St	0.03mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+4%)	6mo	$600,000	$420	83
14-11 Chandler St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,564 (+13%)	4mo	$665,000	$425	54
2202 Loretta Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,440 (+4%)	7mo	$510,000	$354	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $90,366
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $268,032
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11691

• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,209/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,212
• Net cashflow: $2,310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,846

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,508	-5% $2,409	+0% $2,310	+5% $2,211	+10% $2,111
Rent	-10% $1,854	-5% $2,082	+0% $2,310	+5% $2,538	+10% $2,765
Rate	-1.0pp $2,486	-0.5pp $2,399	base $2,310	+0.5pp $2,219	+1.0pp $2,127

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$5,770
Total (2 units)			$5,770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Bayview Ave Inwood, NY	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,500	$3.61	25d	1	0.18mi
13-15 Heyson Rd Unit 2 Far Rockaway, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,600	$3.00	19d	1	1.11mi
324 Buckingham Rd Cedarhurst, NY	3.0	2.0	1583	$7,000	$4.42	13d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-11-04
   soldstatus $479,272
2. 2023-06-12
   status Pending
3. 2023-01-30
   listed $350,000 Active
4. 2015-07-29
   historical
5. 2015-01-20
   listed $239,000
6. 2007-10-26
   soldstatus $370,737
7. 2003-09-10
   soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,209 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,562 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,353/yr (+$113/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,209
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,539
• − Management: −$5,539
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $23,415
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,620
• After-tax cash flow: $22,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,359
• Household income: $56,135
• Rent vs Own: 72.3% rent · 27.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4702.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -397.66%
• Current HPI: 281.4044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $479,272 Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-30 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-20 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $370,737 Public Records
• 2003-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,209 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.