4601 Carmen Ave #1902 · Rancho Viejo, TX 78575

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1982 2,812 sqft lot $110/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Second story unit facing beautiful pine trees which you can relax to from both living room and master bedroom spacious balconies. unit has 2 spacious bedrooms and master featuring 2 walk in closets. Fireplace and spacious open living/dining . Must see, very well kept

Key facts

• Spacious balconies
• Open living dining
• Second story unit

Tags

• SECOND STORY UNIT
• SPACIOUS BALCONIES
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• FIREPLACE
• OPEN LIVING DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.60%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,783
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $22,518
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $75,763
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78575

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,014/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $717	+0% $680	+5% $644	+10% $607
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $597	+0% $680	+5% $763	+10% $847
Rate	-1.0pp $745	-0.5pp $713	base $680	+0.5pp $647	+1.0pp $613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4601 Carmen Ave #1604 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,200	$1.83	22d	1	0.02mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1603 Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$2,400	$1.81	14d	1	0.04mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 2204 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,000	$1.76	14d	1	0.04mi
4601 Carmen Ave Unit 1903 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$2,000	$1.71	44d	1	0.04mi
3500 Carmen Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$1,825	$1.59	14d	2	0.87mi
3500 Carmen Ave #408 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$2,300	$2.15	14d	1	0.88mi
3500 Carmen Ave #1103 Rancho Viejo, TX	2.0	2.5	1222	$1,500	$1.23	44d	1	0.88mi
2515 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,550	$1.09	14d	1	1.13mi
2101 El Dorado Ave Rancho Viejo, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	14d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $129,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $135,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Second story unit facing beautiful pine trees which you can relax to from both living room and master bedroom spacious balconies. unit has 2 spacious bedrooms and master featuring 2 walk in closets. Fireplace and spacious open living/dining . Must see, very well kept

19. 2026-02-20
    price $135,000
20. 2025-12-18
    price $139,900
21. 2025-12-03
    price $145,000
22. 2010-01-25
    soldstatus
23. 2004-10-18
    soldstatus
24. 1996-08-30
    soldstatus
25. 1994-01-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,014 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,014 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$3,014
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $6,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,576
• After-tax cash flow: $6,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rancho Viejo

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #7444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Viejo, TX
• City population: 4,728
• Population (ZIP): 4,728

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 36% White 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 240.4582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $135,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $135,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $139,900 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $145,000 RGVMLS
• 2010-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,014 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.