5011 Northridge Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1950 6,163 sqft lot $147/sqft · 7% below area Est $177k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established neighborhood. This property features a detached structure with composition roofing, original interior finishes, and functional floor plan. Home is being sold As-Is. Buyer to verify room dimensions and property condition.

Key facts

• Detached structure
• Composition roofing
• Spacious lot

Tags

• DETACHED STRUCTURE
• COMPOSITION ROOFING
• ORIGINAL INTERIOR FINISHES
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,818/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,942
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -6.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5007 Northridge Dr	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-5%)	2mo	$163,900	$153	90
5318 Longmeadow St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,138 (+1%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	77
7713 St Lo Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,151 (+2%)	4mo	$199,900	$174	66
7330 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+3%)	3mo	$154,900	$134	65
5306 Kenilwood Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (-8%)	5mo	$80,000	$77	64
7314 Forrestal St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-9%)	0mo	$105,000	$103	57
5041 Southwind St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-9%)	7mo	$195,000	$191	56
7338 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+9%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	55
4737 Alvin St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+8%)	4mo	$95,000	$78	55
8126 Marcy Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+10%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	52
5225 Longmeadow St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+15%)	2mo	$138,000	$107	48
4842 Larkspur St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-738
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $46,741
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.06mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.21mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	43d	1	0.30mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.41mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.43mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	24d	1	0.53mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	0.54mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	0.54mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	0.54mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	14d	1	0.61mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	12d	1	0.63mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.67mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	0.77mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	14d	1	0.78mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	43d	1	0.79mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	13d	1	0.81mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	7d	1	0.82mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	0.84mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	43d	1	0.95mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.06mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	43d	1	1.07mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.08mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,355	$3.92	2d	1	1.09mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	16d	1	1.16mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	43d	1	1.18mi
1600 Jester St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	707	$1,395	$1.97	2d	4	1.19mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.23mi
7823 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	43d	1	1.26mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	1d	1	1.29mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	1.31mi
4007 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$885	$1.09	24d	1	1.32mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	1.34mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	43d	1	1.35mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	1.40mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	1.40mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.41mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.46mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-02-18
    listed $165,000 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Charming single-family home situated on a spacious lot in an established neighborhood. This property features a detached structure with composition roofing, original interior finishes, and functional floor plan. Home is being sold As-Is. Buyer to verify room dimensions and property condition.

13. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$85/mo · 51.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$351
• After-tax cash flow: $3,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,994 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.