4807 Orange Blossom St · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$189,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 2019 0.51 ac lot $130/sqft · 12% below area Est $214k · 12% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bathrom retreat nestled in the heart of Hood County. Built in 2019, this like-new home offers modern finishes and thoughtful design in a tranquil country setting just minutes from the charm of historic downtown Granbury and the recreational amenities of Lake Granbury. With 1456 square feet of comfortable living space, this home is move-in ready and lovingly cared for. Pride of ownership shows throughout. The open layout is perfect for entertaining, while the generous half-acre lot provides room to relax, play, and enjoy the wide-open Texas sky. You will appreciate the convenience and comfort of the air conditioned shed. Whether you're

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Half-acre lot
• Open layout

Tags

• TRANQUIL COUNTRY SETTING
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN GRANBURY
• OPEN LAYOUT
• HALF-ACRE LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $98; Association fee includes full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 covered/carport space)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Private water; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Preowned (built in 2019); Not attached to another property
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Built in 2019; Preowned
• Exterior features: Partially wooded lot; Accessible approach with ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric water heater; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; 9 total rooms; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,383
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -11.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,594
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,877
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,409

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	0.40mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.63mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $189,000 Active 806-char remark
15. 2019-12-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,037/yr (+$253/mo · 720.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $1,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$284
• After-tax cash flow: $3,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.