5375 Pecos Pass · Midway, FL 32563

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1988 0.32 ac lot Est $262k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

Key facts

• In-home laundry area
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• IN-HOME LAUNDRY AREA
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Primary School (723 students, 39% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Gulf Breeze High School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B, #66 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 1,978 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $269k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,241 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5375 Pecos Pass	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$226	99
5331 Maverick Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$240,000	$227	74
5301 Fargo Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,211 (+5%)	5mo	$220,000	$182	67
1893 Crosscreek Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,124 (-2%)	7mo	$255,000	$227	66
1671 Tuscon Ct	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$287,000	$272	63
5397 Fawn Ridge Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,185 (+3%)	11mo	$275,000	$232	62
5590 Meadow Creek Pl	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	11mo	$290,000	$252	55
5566 Meadow Creek Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,257 (+9%)	1mo	$280,000	$223	55
1980 Crosscreek Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+11%)	1mo	$300,000	$234	53
2026 Church St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,271 (+10%)	1mo	$255,000	$201	53
5595 Meadow Creek Pl	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,058 (-8%)	10mo	$210,000	$198	43
2025 Shadow Lake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	6mo	$290,000	$223	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-37,142
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-13,596
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,057/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,145

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $122	+0% $46	+5% $-30	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-41	+0% $46	+5% $133	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $114	base $46	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5359 Maverick Ln Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	15d	1	0.16mi
1643 Amarillo Trl Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	25d	1	0.45mi
1786 Kell Rd Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,750	$1.30	15d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

3. 2026-04-10
   status Active 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

4. 2026-04-06
   status Pending 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

5. 2026-03-19
   listed $269,000 Active 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

6. 2026-03-19
   listed $269,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gulf Breeze offering comfort and modern updates throughout. The home features a brand-new roof, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards and flooring, giving the space a clean and refreshed feel. The updated kitchen includes new shaker-style cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient in-home laundry area for added functionality. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, providing durability and a modern look. With its thoughtful updates and inviting layout, this home is move-in ready and perfect for comfortable everyday living. Cypress Tree Park is just a short distance with playground and picnic area for family gatherings and events.

7. 2010-09-08
   soldstatus $67,500
8. 2010-08-31
   soldstatus $67,500
9. 2010-08-31
   soldstatus $67,500
10. 2010-02-28
    listed $74,900
11. 2010-02-27
    listed $74,900
12. 2002-09-05
    soldstatus $71,900
13. 2002-08-30
    soldstatus $71,900
14. 2002-07-19
    listed $71,900
15. 2002-06-06
    historical
16. 2002-01-07
    listed $77,500
17. 2002-01-07
    listed $77,500
18. 2000-08-09
    listed $79,900
19. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $41,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$176/yr (+$15/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,057
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$4,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $1,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+543.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $269,000 NAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $269,000 PARMLS
• 2010-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2010-08-31 Sold (MLS) $67,500 NAMLS
• 2010-08-31 Sold (MLS) $67,500 PARMLS
• 2010-02-28 Listed $74,900 PARMLS
• 2010-02-27 Listed $74,900 NAMLS
• 2002-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $71,900 Public Records
• 2002-08-30 Sold (MLS) $71,900 PARMLS
• 2002-07-19 Listed $71,900 PARMLS
• 2002-06-06 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2002-01-07 Listed $77,500 NAMLS
• 2002-01-07 Listed $77,500 ECAR
• 2000-08-09 Listed $79,900 ECAR
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,057 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.