477 Crediton St · Lake Orion, MI 48362

$239,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1955 1.41 ac lot $218/sqft · 10% below area Est $266k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

Key facts

• 1.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Orion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#77 in MI, #1,679 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 32 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 13228% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $212,950 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,963
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -9.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
477 Crediton St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,100 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$209	100
810 Beardon	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,009 (-8%)	8mo	$257,500	$255	62
810 Beardon	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,009 (-8%)	8mo	$257,500	$255	62
919 Beardon	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+2%)	14mo	$260,000	$232	61
482 Robertson Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+10%)	14mo	$380,000	$313	57
2640 W Clarkston Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+7%)	19mo	$254,000	$215	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-30,740
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,382
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,353/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $196	+0% $128	+5% $60	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $44	+0% $128	+5% $212	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $189	base $128	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Active 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

2. 2026-05-17
   status Active 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

3. 2026-05-12
   historical $1,800
4. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

5. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

6. 2026-04-23
   listed $1,800
7. 2026-04-22
   historical $1,800
8. 2026-04-21
   listed $1,800
9. 2026-04-20
   listed $239,900 Active 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

10. 2026-04-20
    listed $239,900 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    3 bedroom Ranch Home, 1,100 SF situated on 1.41 Acres. Located near Orion Oaks County Park and Canterbury Village with easy access to I-75. This home has been updated with fresh paint throughout and brand-new laminate flooring spanning the dining area, bedrooms, hallway, and bath. Updates also include a newly serviced well with a brand-new pump. Enjoy the outdoors from the expansive wood deck that leads to a convenient breezeway, connecting the home to a spacious 2-car garage (equipped with electricity and opener). Lake Orion Schools. (HOME IS ALSO OFFERED FOR LEASE - see MLS #20261023711 )

11. 2024-05-20
    historical
12. 2024-05-20
    historical
13. 2024-01-17
    listed $235,000 Active
14. 2024-01-17
    listed $235,000 Active
15. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $210,000
16. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus $210,000 Sold
17. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed
18. 2023-03-14
    status Pending
19. 2023-03-14
    status Pending
20. 2023-03-11
    listed $210,000 Active
21. 2023-03-11
    listed $210,000 Active
22. 2023-03-08
    historical $210,000
23. 2023-03-08
    historical $210,000
24. 2022-03-25
    historical
25. 2022-03-24
    historical
26. 2022-03-19
    listed $220,000 Active
27. 2022-03-19
    listed $220,000 Active
28. 2022-03-17
    historical
29. 2022-03-17
    historical
30. 2021-09-20
    soldstatus $133,000
31. 2021-09-03
    soldstatus $133,000 Sold
32. 2021-09-03
    soldstatus $133,000 Closed
33. 2021-08-08
    status Pending
34. 2021-08-08
    status Pending
35. 2021-07-25
    status Active
36. 2021-07-25
    status Active
37. 2021-07-14
    status Pending
38. 2021-07-14
    status Pending
39. 2021-07-09
    price $155,000
40. 2021-07-09
    price $155,000
41. 2021-07-05
    status Active
42. 2021-07-05
    status Active
43. 2021-07-03
    status Pending
44. 2021-07-03
    status Pending
45. 2021-06-29
    listed $165,000 Active
46. 2021-06-29
    listed $165,000 Active
47. 2018-07-19
    soldstatus $119,900
48. 2018-07-11
    soldstatus $119,900 Sold
49. 2018-06-01
    status Pending
50. 2018-06-01
    status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,353 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,353
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$2,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $2,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lake Orion

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #1679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

77 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-17 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Rental Removed $1,800 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-23 Listed for Rent $1,800 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Rental Removed $1,800 REALSOURCE
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $1,800 REALSOURCE
• 2026-04-20 Listed $239,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Listed $239,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-17 Listed $235,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-17 Listed $235,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) $210,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-03-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-11 Listed $210,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-11 Listed $210,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-03-08 Coming Soon $210,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-08 Coming Soon $210,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-19 Listed $220,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-03-19 Listed $220,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-17 Coming Soon — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-17 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-03 Sold (MLS) $133,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-03 Sold (MLS) $133,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-08-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-25 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-25 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-09 Price Changed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-09 Price Changed $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-05 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-05 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-06-29 Listed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-06-29 Listed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2018-07-11 Sold (MLS) $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2018-06-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-06-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-05-30 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-30 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2017-04-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-04-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-03 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-02 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2016-11-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-11-18 Listed $97,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-18 Listed $97,500 REALCOMP
• 2009-04-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-03-03 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-07-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-06-22 Sold (MLS) $875 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-12 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-12 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 1999-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $96,500 Public Records
• 1999-03-26 Sold (MLS) $96,500 REALCOMP
• 1999-02-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1999-01-11 Listed $98,900 REALCOMP
• 1998-12-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1998-10-04 Listed $102,900 REALCOMP
• 1998-08-05 Listed $106,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,353 · -46.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.