Pedernales Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$261,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Two bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM
• TWO BATHROOM
• SECLUDED WORK FROM HOME SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $261,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,921.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($321/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,551 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,921
• List price: $261,990
• Delta: -4.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3020 Bristlegrass St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (+5%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	77
3000 Sunflower Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (+6%)	6mo	$276,990	$145	76
3016 Sunflower Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,604 (-11%)	2mo	$244,990	$153	75
3004 Mistflower Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (+5%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	75
3016 Bristlegrass St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+9%)	3mo	$324,990	$166	71
3036 Mistflower Trl	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+7%)	1mo	$314,990	$164	70
3037 Bristlegrass St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+9%)	4mo	$299,990	$153	67
3041 Plateau Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,556 (-14%)	6mo	$263,000	$169	63
3045 Buckthorn Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (+13%)	3mo	$328,484	$162	62
3013 Bristlegrass St	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,050 (+14%)	4mo	$334,990	$163	61
3036 Plateau Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,049 (+14%)	5mo	$299,728	$146	60
3021 Buckthorn Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,049 (+14%)	6mo	$299,892	$146	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,580
• Equity at exit: $40,693

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,254
• Equity at exit: $23,597

Cash invested: $76,418 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,094/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $272,921

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $121	+0% $27	+5% $-68	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-69	+0% $27	+5% $122	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $96	base $27	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,230
• Closing costs: $8,188
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	45d	1	0.17mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	45d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $261,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $261,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $261,990 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,288
• − Property taxes: −$4,094
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$7,940
• Taxable loss: −$4,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $1,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Pedernales, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $261,990 Zillow