165 4 Christmas Tree Cir · Maple Falls, WA 98244

$49,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 495 sqft · Manufactured · 289 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot $101/sqft · 31% below area Est $73k · 31% under $180/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lot 165 in Division 4 at The Glen is ready for your mountain escape. The 1996 Fleetwood Mallard with a durable metal roof has been thoughtfully maintained. A spacious addition includes double-pane windows, a cozy glass fireplace, AC for year-round comfort, and room to sleep 7. It’s ideal for hosting guests and creating lasting memories. A large, powered shed provides extra storage or workspace. Zoned recreational for 120 days per year, this retreat is nestled inside The Glen at Maple Falls, where you’ll enjoy two pools (one open year-round), a hot tub, sauna, tennis and pickleball courts, two clubhouses, laundry and shower facilities, trails, a library, playgrounds, 24/7 gated s

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Glass fireplace
• Powered shed

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• GLASS FIREPLACE
• POWERED SHED
• ZONED RECREATIONAL
• TWO POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#544 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Baker School District (rural): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #165 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.84%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,605
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -31.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Christmas Tree Cir	0.01mi	1/1.0	482 (-3%)	19mo	$100,000	$207	79
101 3 Sunset Cir	0.00mi	1/1.0	448 (-10%)	8mo	$25,000	$56	78
135 3 Schinn Canyon Cir	0.26mi	1/1.0	472 (-5%)	16mo	$28,000	$59	66
130 3 Schinn Canyon Cir	0.26mi	2/1.0 (+1)	500 (+1%)	22mo	$67,000	$134	63
133 3 Schinn Canyon Cir	0.34mi	1/1.0	520 (+5%)	21mo	$32,000	$62	58
13 7 Big Tree Dr	0.61mi	1/1.0	480 (-3%)	11mo	$124,875	$260	57
234 Schinn Canyon Dr	0.36mi	1/1.0	540 (+9%)	21mo	$100,000	$185	51
254 6 Schinn Canyon Ct	0.42mi	1/1.0	441 (-11%)	15mo	$110,000	$249	50
168 1 Fireside Lodge Cir	0.68mi	1/1.0	566 (+14%)	10mo	$115,000	$203	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $40,871
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.09×
• Total profit: $99,006
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98244

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 273 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 272 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 271 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 270 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    price $49,900
17. 2025-10-11
    price $53,000
18. 2025-09-02
    listed $58,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $9,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,177
• After-tax cash flow: $7,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is ready for a new owner, featuring a spacious addition with modern amenities and a large powered shed. Potential buyers can appreciate the property's location and amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Baker School District
• NCES district ID: 5305310
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,695
• Composite: 42.37/100
• National rank: #6931
• State rank: #165 of 291 in WA

Livability — Maple Falls

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #22984

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Falls, WA
• Population (ZIP): 3,080

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.13%
• Current HPI: 420.4673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $53,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $58,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid