1918 Harrison Ave #34 · Centralia, WA 98531

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Other public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1998 $142/sqft · 18% above area Est $189k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in one of the nicest, cleanest, and best-maintained parks in Centralia, Golden Estates is highly sought after. This spacious, high quality, Golden West, above-average sized home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, each equipped with walk-in showers, 1 in the main bedroom, en suite. The home offers a welcoming eat-in kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a new dishwasher, along with a separate dining room, living room, and an extra-large family room—perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Tile flooring is featured in the kitchen, laundry room, and main bathroom. This home has an easy way of creating 2 living spaces for visitors or a care worker. The primary bedroom includes a walk-i

Key facts

• Large windows
• Walk-in closet
• Tubular skylights

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• NEW DISHWASHER
• TILE FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE WINDOWS
• TUBULAR SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centralia Middle School (549 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 65% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $215k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $195,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,950
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 18.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-24,731
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,580
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,212/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $220	+0% $159	+5% $98	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $81	+0% $159	+5% $237	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $214	base $159	+0.5pp $103	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1413 Nora Ln Centralia, WA	2.0	3.0	1315	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	0.44mi
1413 Nora Ln Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	2.5	1315	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	0.44mi
2711 Niki Ln Bldg D8 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	45d	1	0.90mi
2711 Niki LN Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	45d	1	0.95mi
683 Bryden Ave Unit A Centralia, WA	4.0	2.5	1944	$2,900	$1.49	45d	1	1.02mi
2999 Harrison Ave Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	22d	1	1.05mi
2991 Yaro Ln Unit A Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	22d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $223,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $223,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $223,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $223,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $223,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $223,000 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $223,000
19. 2026-04-13
    price $229,000
20. 2026-03-18
    listed $239,000 Active
21. 2012-08-05
    historical
22. 2012-08-03
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold
23. 2012-07-27
    status Pending
24. 2012-06-08
    status Active
25. 2012-06-06
    status Pending
26. 2012-05-29
    status Pending Inspection
27. 2012-05-21
    listed $67,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,212 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,212 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,212
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$402
• After-tax cash flow: $2,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+230.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $223,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $229,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $239,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-05 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-03 Sold (MLS) $60,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-08 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-21 Listed $67,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,212 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.