8615 Giovanni Ave · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$326,772

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Land · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 4,095 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover Modern Comfort in Waterstone! This stunning, brand-new construction villa offers the perfect blend of style and functional design. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 elegant baths, this home is highlighted by a versatile flex room—ideal for a home office, hobby space, or quiet retreat. The open-concept layout flows seamlessly into a contemporary kitchen with a large island and pantry, making it a dream for entertaining. Enjoy peaceful mornings on your open porch with a serene back pond view. Complete with a 2-car garage, this home is as practical as it is beautiful. Located in a vibrant community with access to a clubhouse, pool, pickleball, and more! Sample Photos

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Large island
• Flex room

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION VILLA
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• SERENE BACK POND VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Association: Waterstone; Annual association fee; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, and sidewalks; Association covers grounds maintenance, security, common areas, and pool service

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (garage)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Villa; Single-story; New construction; Lives north-facing; Model: Adams Homes 1658; Community: Waterstone
• Construction: Block/Concrete/CBS construction; Composition/fiberglass/shingle roof; Built by Adams Homes
• Exterior features: Open porch; Porch; Interior lot; Mangrove waterfront features (property listed as waterfront with mangrove)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Electric water heater; Accessible kitchen and kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level; Accessible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Closet cabinetry; Insulated windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Accessible washer/dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-110/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,670/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,038 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-53,579
• Equity at exit: $48,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-47,591
• Equity at exit: $28,253

Cash invested: $91,496 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,714
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,268/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,682

Max offer price $325,156

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $83	+0% $-9	+5% $-102	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-115	+0% $-9	+5% $96	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $74	base $-9	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,693
• Closing costs: $9,803
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5082 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$3,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.19mi
5154 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,350	$1.59	15d	1	0.19mi
5226 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,950	$1.47	22d	1	0.29mi
8674 Pavia St Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,600	$1.43	22d	1	0.56mi
5234 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	15d	1	0.86mi
7704 Pacific Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	15d	1	1.15mi
6602 Palomar Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	25d	1	1.28mi
5010 Killarney Ave Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	25d	1	1.29mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	22d	1	1.39mi
5510 Shannon Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,350	$1.47	15d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $326,772 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $326,772 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $326,772 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $326,772 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $326,772 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $326,772 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $326,772 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $326,772 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $326,772 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $326,772 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $326,772 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $326,772 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $326,772 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,772 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $326,772 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $326,772 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $326,772 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    price $326,772
19. 2026-05-09
    price $320,772
20. 2026-05-06
    listed $302,772 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,712 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,304
• − Property taxes: −$2,268
• − Insurance: −$1,634
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,564
• − Management: −$2,564
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$9,506
• Taxable loss: −$5,754
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,381
• After-tax cash flow: $1,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+7.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $326,772 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $320,772 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $302,772 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,268 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.