3511 Highway 85 · Carrizo Springs, TX 78834

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 669 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, home, sitting on just over 2 acres of land, located outside the city limits of Carrizo Springs. Enjoy the peacefulness without being too far from town. This house features high ceilings, a spacious living area, perfect for company, a wood burning fireplace, and three large bedrooms. Outside you will find a fenced area, perfect for livestock, a covered storage area, and a carport for 3 or more vehicles.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 668 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,342 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 669 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 669 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $51,303
• Equity at exit: $83,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.04×
• Total profit: $141,462
• Equity at exit: $155,202

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78834

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,703/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 669 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 668 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 667 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 666 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 665 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 663 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 662 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 660 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 659 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 658 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 657 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 652 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 651 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 650 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 649 DOM
16. 2025-08-18
    status Back on Market 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, home, sitting on just over 2 acres of land, located outside the city limits of Carrizo Springs. Enjoy the peacefulness without being too far from town. This house features high ceilings, a spacious living area, perfect for company, a wood burning fireplace, and three large bedrooms. Outside you will find a fenced area, perfect for livestock, a covered storage area, and a carport for 3 or more vehicles.

17. 2025-07-11
    historical 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, home, sitting on just over 2 acres of land, located outside the city limits of Carrizo Springs. Enjoy the peacefulness without being too far from town. This house features high ceilings, a spacious living area, perfect for company, a wood burning fireplace, and three large bedrooms. Outside you will find a fenced area, perfect for livestock, a covered storage area, and a carport for 3 or more vehicles.

18. 2024-07-12
    listed $125,000 New 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, home, sitting on just over 2 acres of land, located outside the city limits of Carrizo Springs. Enjoy the peacefulness without being too far from town. This house features high ceilings, a spacious living area, perfect for company, a wood burning fireplace, and three large bedrooms. Outside you will find a fenced area, perfect for livestock, a covered storage area, and a carport for 3 or more vehicles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,703 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 34.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,703
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $37
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $2,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with moderate updates needed, particularly in the kitchen and exterior. Upgrading these areas can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are older and show signs of wear, indicating a need for replacement or refurbishment.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are functional but may benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.
• Minor Exterior paint — The exterior paint shows some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat.
• Minor Flooring — The flooring in the living areas could benefit from a fresh coat of sealant or replacement.
• Minor Interior wall paint — The interior walls have some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen with new cabinets and appliances can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Exterior paint — Refreshing the exterior paint can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are older and show signs of wear, indicating a need for replacement or refurbishment.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are functional but may benefit from a fresh coat of paint or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · The exterior paint shows some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · The flooring in the living areas could benefit from a fresh coat of sealant or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior wall paint · The interior walls have some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$5,000–27,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen with new cabinets and appliances can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Exterior paint — Refreshing the exterior paint can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrizo Springs

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1342
• US rank: #23137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,204

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 59% White 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 127.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-07-12 Listed $125,000 LERA

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,703 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.