204 E Lake St · Ashkum, IL 60911

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 1880 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential in this 3 bedroom home. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and counter space and there is also a spacious dining room. Along with the living room, there is a den and bedroom on the first floor. Two more bedrooms are upstairs, a bonus room and a big open landing. Full basement. Two car garage and a nice yard. Quick access to I-57 for a fast commute either way. Central school district.

Key facts

• Spacious dining room
• Living room
• Bonus room

Tags

• KITCHEN CABINETS
• COUNTER SPACE
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• DEN
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property not currently leased; Possession at closing
• HOA & community: No master association required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (owned) with 2 garage spaces; Additional parking for a total of 6 vehicles; Driveway; garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 1.5-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Over 100 years old; Interstate access nearby
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Park nearby; Sidewalks; Paved street; Lot dimensions approx. 50 x 150; Less than 0.25 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (12 x 14); Bedroom 2 on second level (8 x 14); Bedroom 3 on second level (11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet in many rooms (living room, dining room, bedrooms, den, bonus room); Vinyl flooring in kitchen and laundry
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Carbon monoxide detectors; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Separate dining room; Full cellar basement; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (in bathroom)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#541 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Central CUSD 4 (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #377 of 620 in IL (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Iroquois County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Iroquois County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.87%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,133
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 S Third St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-2%)	10mo	$230,000	$162	80
200 E Lake St	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,580 (+9%)	8mo	$220,000	$139	74
201 S Front St S	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	13mo	$145,000	$112	61
507 N Fifth St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	7mo	$163,000	$116	61
505 E Main St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+11%)	8mo	$215,000	$134	56
603 E Fine St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,235 (-15%)	19mo	$190,000	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $36,751
• Equity at exit: $41,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $94,319
• Equity at exit: $73,822

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60911

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,162/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $312	+0% $292	+5% $272	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $249	+0% $292	+5% $335	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $310	base $292	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $90,350 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,162 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,162 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,162
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$626
• After-tax cash flow: $2,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1710410
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $56,873
• Composite: 19.81/100
• National rank: #8700
• State rank: #377 of 620 in IL

Livability — Ashkum

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #11217

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashkum, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,215

Population outlook (Iroquois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,826 people
• By 2030: 25,771 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,589 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 21,523 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 17,998 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 14,979 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% English 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Iroquois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.3) · D 20.6% · R 78.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -57.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.3 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Current HPI: 165.6062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $90,350 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,162 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.