18760 Lawrence 2185 · Aurora, MO 65605

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,201 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHORT SALE: Property sold 'as-is' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre- qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, HVAC not working, flooring and drywall need work, mouse infestation, several doors need replaced

Key facts

• Large yard
• Granite counter top
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• GRANITE COUNTER TOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#710 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aurora R-VIII (town): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #244 of 324 in MO (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aurora Jr. High (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #321 of 391 statewide, top 82%, 283 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,665
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $13,824
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65605

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,030

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $265	+0% $229	+5% $194	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $177	+0% $229	+5% $281	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $261	base $229	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   SHORT SALE: Property sold 'as-is' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre- qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, HVAC not working, flooring and drywall need work, mouse infestation, several doors need replaced

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $109,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   SHORT SALE: Property sold 'as-is' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre- qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, HVAC not working, flooring and drywall need work, mouse infestation, several doors need replaced

3. 2026-04-14
   historical 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   SHORT SALE: Property sold 'as-is' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre- qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, HVAC not working, flooring and drywall need work, mouse infestation, several doors need replaced

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $109,900 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   SHORT SALE: Property sold 'as-is' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre- qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, HVAC not working, flooring and drywall need work, mouse infestation, several doors need replaced

5. 2025-02-25
   soldstatus
6. 2025-02-21
   soldstatus Closed 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   Are you ready for life in the country on a HUGE . 70 acre lot? This 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home could be the perfect fit for your needs! Whether you need space for school aged kids, or you want to utilize the RV parking pad, the extra deep garage with a built in storm shelter, this home could fit your needs perfectly. The enclosed front porch is a great spot to relax with a book, the huge granite counter tops in the kitchen are perfect for prepping meals to enjoy in the formal dining room, and the privacy fenced back yard is great for pets and play time! You'll have peace of mind knowing that the home is all brick/vinyl with metal roof, soffit & facia, making it a virtually maintenance free exterior, while the newer Trane furnace will keep things comfortable for years to come.

7. 2025-01-22
   status Pending 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   Are you ready for life in the country on a HUGE . 70 acre lot? This 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home could be the perfect fit for your needs! Whether you need space for school aged kids, or you want to utilize the RV parking pad, the extra deep garage with a built in storm shelter, this home could fit your needs perfectly. The enclosed front porch is a great spot to relax with a book, the huge granite counter tops in the kitchen are perfect for prepping meals to enjoy in the formal dining room, and the privacy fenced back yard is great for pets and play time! You'll have peace of mind knowing that the home is all brick/vinyl with metal roof, soffit & facia, making it a virtually maintenance free exterior, while the newer Trane furnace will keep things comfortable for years to come.

8. 2025-01-16
   listed $236,500 Active 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   Are you ready for life in the country on a HUGE . 70 acre lot? This 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home could be the perfect fit for your needs! Whether you need space for school aged kids, or you want to utilize the RV parking pad, the extra deep garage with a built in storm shelter, this home could fit your needs perfectly. The enclosed front porch is a great spot to relax with a book, the huge granite counter tops in the kitchen are perfect for prepping meals to enjoy in the formal dining room, and the privacy fenced back yard is great for pets and play time! You'll have peace of mind knowing that the home is all brick/vinyl with metal roof, soffit & facia, making it a virtually maintenance free exterior, while the newer Trane furnace will keep things comfortable for years to come.

9. 2024-10-03
   price $236,512
10. 2024-08-27
    listed $260,000 Active
11. 2016-05-26
    soldstatus
12. 2016-05-20
    soldstatus
13. 2015-10-01
    listed $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$185
• After-tax cash flow: $2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aurora R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2904020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,036
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6883
• State rank: #244 of 324 in MO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #22927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,611

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $109,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-14 Delisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-14 Listed $109,900 OGAR
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-21 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2025-01-22 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-01-16 Listed $236,500 SOMO
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $236,512 SOMO
• 2024-08-27 Listed $260,000 SOMO
• 2016-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-10-01 Listed $147,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.