78 Shady Pines Park · Westminster, VT 05158

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $109k · 50% under $423/mo HOA · 38% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable place to call home? This could be the place for you! This 1989 Mobile Home currently sits on a large, rented lot in the conveniently located Shady Pines Park in Westminster VT, close to I-91, and many surrounding towns like Bellows Falls, Saxtons River, and Walpole. The home features a large eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms, and the addition of a covered porch, ideal for grilling and outdoor gatherings. If you're looking to remain in Shady Pines Park, sale will be contingent on an application approval by the park manager. Home could also be bought and towed to a new location at Purchaser's expense. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large rented lot
• Easy access to i-91

Tags

• LARGE RENTED LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO I-91
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home make: Green Briar Home; Mobile serial number: 066728
• HOA & community: Monthly park/community fee; Fee includes water, sewer, park fees, and park rent

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Community/shared water; Community/shared sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Located in Shady Pines Park (park-approved)
• Construction: Built in 1989; Steel frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove - Electric; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (1st level); Two additional bedrooms (1st level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (1st level); One half bathroom (1st level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat with forced air
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#59 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.46%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,032
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Shady Pines Park	0.00mi	3/1.5	924 (0%)	2mo	$47,500	$51	96
189 Shady Pines Park	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	2mo	$25,000	$27	91
160 Shady Pnes	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	825 (-11%)	3mo	$98,999	$120	69
201 Shady Pnes	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	790 (-14%)	1mo	$92,999	$118	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $13,061
• Equity at exit: $23,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $37,978
• Equity at exit: $34,339

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05158

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $301/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$423
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $137	+0% $121	+5% $106	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $77	+0% $121	+5% $166	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $135	base $121	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $423 · $5,076/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 487-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $55,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 123.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$301
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − HOA: −$5,076
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Westminster

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #13210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,214

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Scotch-Irish 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.46%
• Current HPI: 96.3785
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $55,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2026-04-10 Sold (MLS) $47,500 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-14 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-19 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $55,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $65,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $301 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.