1270 Casey Rd · Pahrump, NV 89048

$227,200

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,970 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1992 1.10 ac lot $115/sqft · 31% below area Est $331k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully upgraded Arce Property in Pahrump offering space, freedom, and modern finishes. This home features a custom kitchen with granite countertops, a skylight bringing in natural light, and upgraded flooring throughout. Situated on a property with no HOA, giving you flexibility for RV parking, toys, or future additions. Horse permitted zoning makes it ideal for equestrian use or those wanting extra land and versatility. Located in growing Pahrump, Nevada with easy access to local amenities while still enjoying wide open desert living. All information is deemed reliable but should be independently verified by all parties.

Key facts

• Over an acre of land
• 1.1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED MODERN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS OUTDOOR SPACE
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount available (not included per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Open parking; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic available (septic tank installed); Private well water
• Home design: Single-story residence; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; Mobile home dimensions approximately 56' by 24'
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Desert landscaping; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms; Bedrooms include ceiling fans
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located downstairs; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $73k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,744 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,669
• List price: $227,200
• Delta: 5.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1391 E Casey Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-3%)	12mo	$330,000	$173	72
1021 E Brian Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-7%)	8mo	$342,900	$187	61
5481 Money St	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-10%)	8mo	$380,000	$214	54
861 E Clementine St	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,048 (+4%)	19mo	$320,000	$156	53
4790 Mankins St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-8%)	13mo	$275,000	$151	49
1800 Heritage Dr	0.65mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,106 (+7%)	10mo	$355,000	$169	39
4761 Money St	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,742 (-12%)	23mo	$300,000	$172	37
4731 Mankins St	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,708 (-13%)	21mo	$324,900	$190	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,006
• Equity at exit: $33,876

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,776
• Equity at exit: $19,644

Cash invested: $63,616 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89048

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,191
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,405/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $227,200

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $196	+0% $131	+5% $67	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $49	+0% $131	+5% $214	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $189	base $131	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,800
• Closing costs: $6,816
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5271 Deanna St Pahrump, NV	5.0	3.0	2354	$2,800	$1.19	44d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $227,200 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,200 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $227,200 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,200 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,200 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $247,200 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,919 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,919 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $299,919 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    historical
11. 2026-05-04
    price $325,000
12. 2026-04-28
    price $350,000
13. 2026-04-19
    listed $375,000 Active
14. 2024-12-05
    historical
15. 2024-08-29
    price $379,999
16. 2024-07-12
    listed $387,770 Active
17. 2024-01-07
    historical
18. 2023-10-03
    price $398,000
19. 2023-09-22
    price $405,000
20. 2023-09-17
    price $415,000
21. 2023-09-01
    listed $425,000 Active
22. 2021-03-24
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed
23. 2021-03-03
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2021-02-15
    listed $225,000 Active
25. 2020-05-19
    soldstatus $103,000
26. 2011-02-09
    soldstatus $56,000
27. 2010-09-17
    historical
28. 2010-07-19
    listed $78,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AO · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,727
• − Property taxes: −$1,405
• − Insurance: −$2,604
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$6,609
• Taxable loss: −$2,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$529
• After-tax cash flow: $2,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nye County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200360
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,447
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8110
• State rank: #16 of 17 in NV

Livability — Pahrump

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #9226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pahrump, NV
• County: Nye County · 47,491 people
• City population: 47,491
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• Population (ZIP): 26,486
• Household income: $61,367
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Nye County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,727 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 33,952 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 29,393 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 21,122 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 14,400 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nye

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.0% · R 70.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.52%
• Current HPI: 277.4486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+188.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $227,200 GLVAR
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $247,200 GLVAR
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $269,400 GLVAR
• 2026-06-10 Listed $299,919 GLVAR
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $325,000 GLVAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $350,000 GLVAR
• 2026-04-19 Listed $375,000 GLVAR
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $379,999 GLVAR
• 2024-07-12 Listed $387,770 GLVAR
• 2024-01-07 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2023-10-03 Price Changed $398,000 GLVAR
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $405,000 GLVAR
• 2023-09-17 Price Changed $415,000 GLVAR
• 2023-09-01 Listed $425,000 GLVAR
• 2021-03-24 Sold (MLS) $225,000 GLVAR
• 2021-03-03 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2021-02-15 Listed $225,000 GLVAR
• 2020-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-17 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2010-07-19 Listed $78,800 GLVAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,405 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.