5391 Chapmans Rd · Cetronia, PA 18069

$499,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,423 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1956 0.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

CALLING FOR BEST AND FINAL BY WEDNESDAY 4/8 AT 4PM! Investor or Multi-Family Opportunity – Spacious 3-Unit Ranch in Upper Macungie Township! This versatile ranch-style property offers a unique multi-unit setup with incredible potential, located in the highly desirable Parkland School District. Situated on a single level, this 3-unit home features: Unit 1: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom – currently tenant-occupied (tenant may stay or vacate at buyer’s discretion). Unit 2: 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom – spacious layout perfect for a family or rental income. Unit 3: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom – can be combined with Unit 2 for added flexibility and space. Additional highlights inclu

Key facts

• Ranch layout
• Multi-unit setup
• Garage

Tags

• MULTI-UNIT SETUP
• PARKLAND SCHOOL DISTRICT
• RANCH LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $499k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 93/100 on livability (#6 in PA, #18 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $499k implies a 1715% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $499,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.60%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $147,509
• Equity at exit: $167,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $400,429
• Equity at exit: $219,716

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18069

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 20.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$479 /mo · $5,743/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,485
• Net cashflow: $2,216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,266

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 64%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,990
1× unit	3	1	$3,080
Total (3 units)			$7,070

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $499,000 Active
3. 1971-05-01
   soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,743 · $479/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,814 · $568/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,071/yr (+$89/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$5,743
• − Insurance: −$3,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,787
• − Management: −$6,787
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $19,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,743
• After-tax cash flow: $21,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkland SD
• NCES district ID: 4218510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $77,976
• Composite: 57.44/100
• National rank: #1074
• State rank: #40 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cetronia

• Score: 93/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #18

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,804

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Current HPI: 277.9781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1714.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $499,000 GLVRMLS
• 1971-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,743 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.