14-3449 Mauna Kea Rd · Nanawale Estates, HI 96778

$203,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2005 Average condition 9,000 sqft lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $208k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully permitted 3-bedroom home offering 1,122 sq ft of comfortable island living in the growing Nanawale Estates subdivision. This well-designed layout includes 2 full bathrooms plus a third bathroom that is already plumbed and ready for fixtures—offering a great opportunity to customize and add value. Ideal for extended living, guests, or rental potential. The home features a functional floor plan with ample natural light and a welcoming interior ready for your personal touch. An oversized carport has been enclosed, creating additional usable space; however, this enclosure was completed without permits and is not reflected in the official square footage. Buyers to conduct their own d

Key facts

• Puna coastline
• Shopping dining
• 9,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• THIRD BATHROOM PLUMBED
• OVERSIZED CARPORT ENCLOSED
• SHORT DRIVE TO PAHOA TOWN
• SHOPPING DINING
• PUNA COASTLINE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $10.33

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (396 sq ft)
• Utilities: Catchment water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Phone available; Cable internet; No solid waste disposal listed
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Located in Lava Zone 2; Zoned A-1A
• Exterior features: Fairly level, grassy lot; Road/street frontage; Graded roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (all full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric water heater
• Interior features: Unpermitted improvements present
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($109/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#78 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keonepoko Elementary School (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #169 of 183 statewide, top 93%, 562 students, 75% FRL); Pahoa High & Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 723 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hawaii Department Of Education average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 388 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $180,000 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,968
• List price: $203,000
• Delta: -2.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,281
• Equity at exit: $30,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,227
• Equity at exit: $17,552

Cash invested: $56,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96778

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$254 /mo · $3,045/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $203,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $79	+0% $9	+5% $-61	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-62	+0% $9	+5% $80	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $61	base $9	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,750
• Closing costs: $6,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14-610 Kapoho Cir Pahoa, HI	2.0	1.0	1210	$1,800	$1.49	45d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $203,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $203,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $203,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $203,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $203,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $203,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $203,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $203,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $203,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $203,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $203,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $203,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $203,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $203,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $203,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $203,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $229,000 Active 959-char remark
18. 2025-10-03
    historical
19. 2025-04-17
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,371
• − Property taxes: −$3,045
• − Insurance: −$1,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,905
• Taxable loss: −$3,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrades to paint, landscaping, and appliances can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint on exterior and interior walls shows signs of wear.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown landscaping and lack of recent maintenance are visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace outdated appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Update bathrooms with new fixtures and finishes — Fresh bathrooms can significantly boost the home's appeal and value.
• Both HVAC system maintenance or replacement — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve energy efficiency and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint on exterior and interior walls shows signs of wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown landscaping and lack of recent maintenance are visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace outdated appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms with new fixtures and finishes — Fresh bathrooms can significantly boost the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance or replacement — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve energy efficiency and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Nanawale Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #17834

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nanawale Estates, HI
• Population (ZIP): 14,225

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Two or more races 30% Hispanic / Latino 15% Pacific Islander 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.52%
• Current HPI: 173.8168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-27.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $203,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-04-09 Listed $229,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2025-04-17 Listed $279,000 HI Information Service