1409 Hawaii Ave · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1960 0.50 ac lot $75/sqft · 7% below area Est $80k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Diamond in the Rough. A little rough on the surface and just waiting for your imagination to take over. Affordable living close to shopping. Bring your tools and paint to make this home truly yours!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.28%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,404
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -6.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $23,291
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $60,624
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	14d	1	0.35mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	3d	1	0.51mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.74mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	44d	2	0.75mi
1905 12th St Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	704	$850	$1.21	14d	1	0.81mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	3d	1	0.98mi
2509 Pecan Dr Unit 11D Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	735	$975	$1.33	21d	1	1.18mi
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	24d	1	1.23mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	44d	1	1.30mi
2360 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,600	$1.36	24d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $74,900 Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    This is a Diamond in the Rough. A little rough on the surface and just waiting for your imagination to take over. Affordable living close to shopping. Bring your tools and paint to make this home truly yours!

17. 2018-11-13
    soldstatus
18. 2009-02-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$2,199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $6,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $5,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $74,900 OCAOR
• 2018-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.