12215 Wild Pine Dr Unit C · Houston, TX 77039

$105,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · Townhouse public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1979 1,853 sqft lot $78/sqft · 6% below area Est $112k · 6% under $168/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom condo with easy access to US 59 and Intercontinental Airport. Trash is included in monthly HOA fee. Both bedrooms are downstairs, with a gameroom/flexroom upstairs. Two car attached garage. Corner Unit. Schedule your showing today. Home is currently occupied and needs 2 hrs notice.

Key facts

• Easy access to us 59
• Corner unit
• $168 HOA

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO US 59
• GAMEROOM FLEXROOM UPSTAIRS
• CORNER UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-824/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (11.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 14% / reading 11%, grade F, #4,167 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 597 students, 98% FRL); Hambrick Middle (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 1,021 students, 93% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,571 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,742
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12339 W Village Dr Unit D	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,340 (0%)	12mo	$55,000	$41	81
12282 Wild Pine Dr Unit A	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,313 (-2%)	11mo	$99,900	$76	80
5618 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,411 (+5%)	4mo	$64,900	$46	79
12315 W Village Dr Unit A	0.21mi	2/1.5	1,340 (0%)	16mo	$88,000	$66	77
12306 Wild Pine Dr Unit D	0.11mi	2/2.5	1,196 (-11%)	4mo	$69,000	$58	69
12439 W Village Dr Unit B	0.27mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	15mo	$110,000	$83	64
5714 Easthampton Dr Unit C	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,527 (+14%)	4mo	$125,000	$82	57
5710 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	20mo	$100,000	$83	56
12307 W Village Dr Unit C	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,491 (+11%)	15mo	$135,700	$91	54
12419 W Village Dr Unit A	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,526 (+14%)	13mo	$58,000	$38	53
5715 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+11%)	19mo	$160,000	$107	53
12206 Northwood Forest Dr #3	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,224 (-9%)	17mo	$129,900	$106	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-21,159
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-23,125
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77039

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$168
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $92,866

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-39	+0% $-69	+5% $-98	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-119	+0% $-69	+5% $-19	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-42	base $-69	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5001 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$1,006	$0.94	45d	16	0.66mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.05mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	1.18mi
5526 Rotan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$900	$0.86	20d	1	1.31mi
4610 Anice St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$1,566	$0.88	14d	1	1.31mi
4505 Aldine Mail Rte Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,350	$1.71	2d	6	1.31mi
4505 Aldine Mail Route Rd Unit 712 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,325	$1.43	45d	1	1.35mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,118	$1.19	3d	7	1.42mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$983	$1.13	23d	6	1.42mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	45d	1	1.43mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	23d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $168 · $2,016/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 206 DOM
16. 2025-11-06
    listed $105,000 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Two bedroom condo with easy access to US 59 and Intercontinental Airport. Trash is included in monthly HOA fee. Both bedrooms are downstairs, with a gameroom/flexroom upstairs. Two car attached garage. Corner Unit. Schedule your showing today. Home is currently occupied and needs 2 hrs notice.

17. 2025-11-01
    historical
18. 2025-05-17
    listed $105,000 Active
19. 2023-06-01
    historical
20. 2023-05-05
    price $100,000
21. 2023-04-14
    price $101,500
22. 2023-04-04
    status Active
23. 2023-03-10
    status Pending
24. 2023-03-02
    status Option Pending
25. 2023-02-03
    price $103,000
26. 2023-01-17
    price $105,000
27. 2022-12-08
    listed $110,000 Active
28. 2022-11-30
    historical
29. 2022-10-24
    status Active
30. 2022-09-05
    status Pending
31. 2022-08-31
    status Option Pending
32. 2022-07-28
    price $115,000
33. 2022-06-02
    listed $125,000 Active
34. 2020-01-09
    historical
35. 2019-12-20
    listed $55,000 Active
36. 2019-12-16
    historical
37. 2019-03-11
    price $70,000
38. 2018-07-30
    listed $77,000 Active
39. 2015-09-03
    soldstatus
40. 2015-05-27
    historical
41. 2015-04-22
    listed $40,900 Active
42. 2015-02-01
    historical
43. 2014-12-03
    listed $40,900 Active
44. 2014-11-21
    historical
45. 2014-11-07
    price $40,900
46. 2014-11-06
    price $41,900
47. 2014-09-16
    listed $42,900 Active
48. 2014-08-11
    historical
49. 2014-05-09
    price $41,000
50. 2014-02-26
    listed $43,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − HOA: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$2,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$574
• After-tax cash flow: $-250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,862
• Household income: $47,119
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1128.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 15% Black 9% White 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.88%
• Current HPI: 316.66
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-72.0% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-05 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Price Changed $101,500 HARMLS
• 2023-04-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-03 Price Changed $103,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-17 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-09-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-28 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-20 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-03-11 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-30 Listed $77,000 HARMLS
• 2015-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-04-22 Listed $40,900 HARMLS
• 2015-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-12-03 Listed $40,900 HARMLS
• 2014-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-11-07 Price Changed $40,900 HARMLS
• 2014-11-06 Price Changed $41,900 HARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Listed $42,900 HARMLS
• 2014-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-05-09 Price Changed $41,000 HARMLS
• 2014-02-26 Listed $43,000 HARMLS
• 2008-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,877 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.