Alder Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$256,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The thoughtfully designed Alder floor plan offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with spaces that balance everyday comfort and modern style. A dramatic two-story family room creates an open, airy feel and flows seamlessly into the integrated kitchen and dining area , perfect for gathering, entertaining, or busy family life. Upstairs, a second-floor game room adds flexible living space for fun, relaxation, or work-from-home needs, while the optional covered patio extends your living area outdoors for year-round enjoyment. With an array of included features and options available, this home is precisely what you've been looking for.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 44 days

Tags

• TWO STORY FAMILY ROOM
• SECOND FLOOR GAME ROOM
• OPTIONAL COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $256,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Alder); Address: Crosby, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model named Alder; Living area approximately 1996

🏗️ New construction. The $256,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,614.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-681/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,214 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,614
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -1.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12919 Dianna Lee Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-1%)	1mo	$280,490	$142	92
13007 Dianna Lee Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-1%)	1mo	$282,990	$143	92
12942 Dianna Lee Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-1%)	2mo	$285,990	$145	92
13046 Dianna Lee Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,979 (-1%)	1mo	$233,490	$118	89
12746 Oat Grass Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-4%)	2mo	$302,990	$158	80
12734 Oat Grass Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-4%)	2mo	$307,990	$160	79
1338 Sea Oats Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-4%)	2mo	$306,990	$160	79
1331 Sea Oats Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-4%)	2mo	$304,990	$159	78
1339 Sea Oats Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,157 (+8%)	1mo	$316,990	$147	75
1223 Bonnerjee Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-7%)	1mo	$292,990	$158	65
1226 Bonnerjee Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-5%)	1mo	$301,990	$159	63
1218 Bonnerjee Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-5%)	1mo	$272,040	$143	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-49,221
• Equity at exit: $38,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-60,950
• Equity at exit: $22,533

Cash invested: $72,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,909/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $252,408

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,154
• Closing costs: $7,818
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,990 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,990 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $256,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $256,990 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $256,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $256,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,990 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $256,990 Active 633-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,909
• − Insurance: −$2,101
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,220
• After-tax cash flow: $540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Alder plan by CastleRock Communities is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. Enhancements like painting and landscaping would further boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install smart home technology — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B