1463 State Route 8 · Unadilla Forks, NY 13485

$120,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1905 3.19 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country farmhouse with six bedrooms nestled on 3.26 acres. The house has much of its original wood floors and molding, great starter home or restoration project. The septic system has been replaced, and the well is new, (30 gallon a min).

Key facts

• New well
• Original wood floors
• 3.19 acre lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• NEW WELL
• REPLACED SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Markham Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #393 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mount Markham Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 449 students, 55% FRL); Mount Markham Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #503 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 304 students, 52% FRL); Mount Markham Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 314 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.96%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $78,322
• Equity at exit: $102,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.42×
• Total profit: $215,607
• Equity at exit: $216,791

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13485

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,996/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $313	+0% $279	+5% $245	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $167	-5% $223	+0% $279	+5% $335	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $310	base $279	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   status Active
3. 2025-10-21
   status Pending
4. 2025-08-13
   price $120,000
5. 2025-04-09
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,996 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,996
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$370
• After-tax cash flow: $2,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Markham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630930
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,456
• Composite: 42.3/100
• National rank: #3262
• State rank: #393 of 590 in NY

Livability — Unadilla Forks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,715

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.41%
• Current HPI: 291.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,996 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.