26307 Arrowleaf Dr · Tomball, TX 77355

$259,325

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,850 sqft · Land · 159 Days on market

Built 2026 $140/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY NOW! Welcome to the Springfield floor plan by Centex Homes. This contemporary home boasts an oversized great room, perfect for spending quality time together, and a spacious gourmet kitchen with an informal nook, ideal for family meals. The second floor is dedicated to bedroom spaces, ensuring privacy and comfort for everyone. Located in Magnolia and zoned to top-rated Tomball ISD, the Decker Farms community offers a park, playground, trails, and easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is designed to keep growing families connected.

Key facts

• Informal nook
• Oversized great room
• Park

Tags

• SPRINGFIELD FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED GREAT ROOM
• SPACIOUS GOURMET KITCHEN
• INFORMAL NOOK
• DECKER FARMS COMMUNITY
• PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($893/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $213,835 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,703
• List price: $259,325
• Delta: -2.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-37,359
• Equity at exit: $38,666

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,741
• Equity at exit: $22,422

Cash invested: $72,611 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,360
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $259,325

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,831
• Closing costs: $7,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $269,325 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $269,325 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

3. 2026-04-17
   price $279,325 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

4. 2026-04-03
   price $281,325 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

5. 2026-03-23
   price $279,325 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

6. 2026-03-19
   price $279,325 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   READY NOW! Welcome to the Springfield floor plan by Centex Homes. This contemporary home boasts an oversized great room, perfect for spending quality time together, and a spacious gourmet kitchen with an informal nook, ideal for family meals. The second floor is dedicated to bedroom spaces, ensuring privacy and comfort for everyone. Located in Magnolia and zoned to top-rated Tomball ISD, the Decker Farms community offers a park, playground, trails, and easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is designed to keep growing families connected.

7. 2026-03-07
   price $284,325 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

8. 2026-03-05
   price $284,325 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   READY NOW! Welcome to the Springfield floor plan by Centex Homes. This contemporary home boasts an oversized great room, perfect for spending quality time together, and a spacious gourmet kitchen with an informal nook, ideal for family meals. The second floor is dedicated to bedroom spaces, ensuring privacy and comfort for everyone. Located in Magnolia and zoned to top-rated Tomball ISD, the Decker Farms community offers a park, playground, trails, and easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is designed to keep growing families connected.

9. 2025-12-19
   listed $298,315 Active 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   READY NOW! Welcome to the Springfield floor plan by Centex Homes. This contemporary home boasts an oversized great room, perfect for spending quality time together, and a spacious gourmet kitchen with an informal nook, ideal for family meals. The second floor is dedicated to bedroom spaces, ensuring privacy and comfort for everyone. Located in Magnolia and zoned to top-rated Tomball ISD, the Decker Farms community offers a park, playground, trails, and easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways. This home is designed to keep growing families connected.

10. 2025-12-07
    listed $298,315 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    The Springfield new home layout boasts a two-story foyer leading into open gathering, spacious kitchen, and dining space, plus four bedrooms upstairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,746 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,631/yr (+$303/mo · 325.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,526
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,544
• Taxable loss: −$3,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $1,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $269,325 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $269,325 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $279,325 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $281,325 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $279,325 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $279,325 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $284,325 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $284,325 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $298,315 HARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed $298,315 Zillow