261 Johnson Rd · Nauvoo, AL 35578

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,005 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2021 2.23 ac lot $79/sqft · 34% above area Est $126k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is offering $5k in closing cost assistance! Move in ready. Don't miss out on this 4 bedroom/2 bath home. The interior has a great open floorplan with a family room, eat in kitchen & dining/flex space! It sits on 2.23+/- acres & has a detached shop 30x40 shop! Call today for more information.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Detached shop
• 2.23 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• DETACHED SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#427 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carbon Hill Elementaryjunior High School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 492 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,000
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 26.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,045
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,548
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35578

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $191	+0% $137	+5% $82	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $75	+0% $137	+5% $198	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $177	base $137	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $165,000 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Seller is offering $5k in closing cost assistance! Move in ready. Don't miss out on this 4 bedroom/2 bath home. The interior has a great open floorplan with a family room, eat in kitchen & dining/flex space! It sits on 2.23+/- acres & has a detached shop 30x40 shop! Call today for more information.

19. 2026-03-30
    listed $175,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Seller is offering $5k in closing cost assistance! Move in ready. Don't miss out on this 4 bedroom/2 bath home. The interior has a great open floorplan with a family room, eat in kitchen & dining/flex space! It sits on 2.23+/- acres & has a detached shop 30x40 shop! Call today for more information.

20. 2026-03-19
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$228
• After-tax cash flow: $1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Nauvoo

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #23140

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,791

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.67%
• Current HPI: 143.3678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+37.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $165,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $175,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2018): $254 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.