353 Little Crk · Pikeville, KY 41501

$147,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot $80/sqft · 19% below area Est $183k · 19% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the desirable Little Creek area. Offering over 2,000 square feet, this home is ready for your personal touch and vision. The spacious layout features a large kitchen, formal dining room, and two main floor bedrooms with convenient access to a full bath. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers abundant natural light, a walk-in closet, and an en suite bath with a tub. Outside, enjoy a fenced yard with a large storage building and easy-to-maintain outdoor space. With some TLC, this property has the potential to truly shine.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Fenced yard
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATH
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Valley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 531 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,869 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,246
• List price: $147,900
• Delta: -18.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
187 Little Crk	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,860 (+1%)	11mo	$255,000	$137	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-31,413
• Equity at exit: $22,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-36,806
• Equity at exit: $12,788

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41501

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,026/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,358

Max offer price $127,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-76	+0% $-118	+5% $-160	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-165	+0% $-118	+5% $-70	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-80	base $-118	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $147,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 551-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $147,900 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-04-16
    status Active
14. 2026-03-12
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2026-02-07
    price $150,000
17. 2025-11-17
    price $169,000
18. 2025-09-19
    price $179,000
19. 2025-08-16
    listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$2,026
• − Insurance: −$1,537
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable loss: −$3,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $-460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,272

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.56%
• Current HPI: 193.2408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $147,900 EKAR
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — EKAR
• 2026-03-12 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $150,000 EKAR
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $150,000 EKAR
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $169,000 EKAR
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $179,000 EKAR
• 2025-08-16 Listed $189,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,026 · +179.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.