6171 Dry Tortugas Dr · Palmer Ranch, FL 34241

$369,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,790 sqft · Land · 61 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move In Ready - Avery at Grand Park Homesite #4660 - Interior Unit Come home to the Avery, a new townhome design by award-winning Neal Communities. This 2-story home includes 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and an attached garage. As soon as you enter the front door, you are greeted by the large living room with a well-appointed kitchen and dining space leading out to the covered lanai. A powder room, storage closet on the lanai, and access to the garage are also on the first floor. * * * Photos are of plan model * * * NOT ACTUAL PHOTOS OF HOME

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $336,241 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.64%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-44,410
• Equity at exit: $55,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-44,422
• Equity at exit: $31,990

Cash invested: $103,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,855

Max offer price $369,990

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,498
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,990 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,990 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $369,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $369,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $369,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $369,990 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $369,990 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-04-09
   listed $369,990 Active 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   Move In Ready - Avery at Grand Park Homesite #4660 - Interior Unit Come home to the Avery, a new townhome design by award-winning Neal Communities. This 2-story home includes 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and an attached garage. As soon as you enter the front door, you are greeted by the large living room with a well-appointed kitchen and dining space leading out to the covered lanai. A powder room, storage closet on the lanai, and access to the garage are also on the first floor. * * * Photos are of plan model * * * NOT ACTUAL PHOTOS OF HOME

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,071 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,139/yr (+$95/mo · 59.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,725
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,228
• − Management: −$3,228
• − Depreciation: −$10,763
• Taxable loss: −$1,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$331
• After-tax cash flow: $5,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $369,990 Zillow