9195 Private Road 3350 · Gilmer, TX 75645

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1996 1.00 ac lot $135/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath metal home offers 1,032 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a 1-acre lot. Tucked away on a private road within Union Grove school district, the property provides both privacy and convenience. While the interior is efficiently sized, the layout makes the most of every square foot. Nice outside yard, perfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining, and take advantage of the 10x12 Tuff Shed out back for extra storage or workspace. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing opportunity, or investment property, this home offers country living with room to spread out.

Key facts

• Private road
• 10x12 tuff shed
• Outside yard

Tags

• PRIVATE ROAD
• UNION GROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
• OUTSIDE YARD
• 10X12 TUFF SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Grove ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #117 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,475 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,011
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -56.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $82,524
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $237,591
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,258/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $139,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath metal home offers 1,032 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a 1-acre lot. Tucked away on a private road within Union Grove school district, the property provides both privacy and convenience. While the interior is efficiently sized, the layout makes the most of every square foot. Nice outside yard, perfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining, and take advantage of the 10x12 Tuff Shed out back for extra storage or workspace. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing opportunity, or investment property, this home offers country living with room to spread out.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,286/yr (+$107/mo · 102.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,258
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$248
• After-tax cash flow: $1,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843530
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,597
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2458
• State rank: #117 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $139,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,258 · +39.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.