5526 Harvard St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1988 7,280 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Western Estates 3/2/2. Convenient to Tech, LCU, and hospitals. Fresh paint inside and out, new interior and exterior doors, beautiful wood flooring.

Key facts

• 7,280 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-family residence
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced backyard; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Aluminum-framed windows; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Carpet flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 618 students, 84% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.06%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,674
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $27,568
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,103/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $400	+0% $366	+5% $332	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $244	-5% $305	+0% $366	+5% $427	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $426	-0.5pp $396	base $366	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5537 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.03mi
5531 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.04mi
5526 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.06mi
5524 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	0.06mi
5524 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.06mi
5516 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	45d	1	0.08mi
5534 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1540	$1,500	$0.97	45d	1	0.09mi
5549 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	0.11mi
5609 Jarvis St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,500	$0.99	15d	1	0.11mi
5609 Jarvis St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.11mi
5524 Jarvis St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	0.11mi
5513 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,500	$1.10	45d	1	0.12mi
5511 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	4.0	4.0	1348	$2,000	$1.48	15d	1	0.12mi
5516 Jarvis St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$1,375	$0.75	45d	1	0.13mi
5506 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	45d	1	0.14mi
5515 Kemper St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,425	$1.06	45d	1	0.16mi
5504 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	45d	1	0.16mi
5508 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	45d	1	0.17mi
5703 Kemper St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,550	$1.02	45d	1	0.17mi
5501 Jarvis St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,450	$1.00	22d	1	0.17mi
623 N Elkhart Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,600	$1.19	15d	1	0.17mi
5609 Kemper St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,350	$0.89	45d	1	0.18mi
5705 Kemper St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.18mi
5612 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1468	$1,500	$1.02	15d	1	0.18mi
5708 Kemper St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	45d	1	0.19mi
5549 Lehigh St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	22d	1	0.19mi
1107 N Englewood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,325	$0.92	22d	1	0.19mi
1107 N Englewood Ave Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,325	$0.92	45d	1	0.19mi
610 N Elkhart Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$875	$0.82	45d	1	0.19mi
5707 Kemper St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.19mi
702 N Englewood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1317	$1,195	$0.91	45d	1	0.22mi
5711 Kemper St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.22mi
5610 Lehigh St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.22mi
5612 Lehigh St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	22d	1	0.22mi
1201 N Essex Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,395	$0.96	22d	1	0.24mi
5420 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1381	$1,175	$0.85	45d	1	0.25mi
1207 N Essex Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,475	$0.80	15d	1	0.26mi
1303 N Colton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,275	$0.88	45d	1	0.26mi
533 N Clinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1340	$1,300	$0.97	45d	1	0.26mi
1303 N Clinton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,495	$1.09	45d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2014-07-07
   soldstatus 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Western Estates 3/2/2. Convenient to Tech, LCU, and hospitals. Fresh paint inside and out, new interior and exterior doors, beautiful wood flooring.

4. 2014-07-07
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Western Estates 3/2/2. Convenient to Tech, LCU, and hospitals. Fresh paint inside and out, new interior and exterior doors, beautiful wood flooring.

5. 2014-02-24
   listed $85,000 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   Western Estates 3/2/2. Convenient to Tech, LCU, and hospitals. Fresh paint inside and out, new interior and exterior doors, beautiful wood flooring.

6. 1993-04-01
   soldstatus
7. 1989-11-01
   soldstatus
8. 1989-10-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,103
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+41.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $120,000 LARMLS
• 2014-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-07 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2014-02-24 Listed $85,000 LARMLS
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,103 · -10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.