12850 Carrington Cir #203 · Vineyards, FL 34105

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · Condo public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2007 $730/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Carriage home in the heart of Naples. This conveniently located 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with garage on first floor and living areas on the second floor, has lots of upgrades and a private panoramic view of the protected preserve. The kitchen features granite countertops, wood cabinets and a beautiful new tile backsplash. The microwave, range, refrigerator and dishwasher are all new stainless steel. Beautiful moldings, tray ceiling and plantation shutters. The master bath has separate vanities, shower and garden tub. New air conditioner in 2018. Washer and dryer less than 2 years old. Everything is freshly painted and carpeted areas (bedrooms) have new carpet. Aviano is a gated community that offers residents a community clubhouse, fitness center, community pool and spa. Fantastic location close to the beach, shopping, dining and easy access to I-75 and the airport. Welcome to paradise!

Key facts

• Custom backsplash
• New 2023 tile roof
• 2023 interior paint

Tags

• NEW 2023 TILE ROOF
• 2023 EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW UPGRADED SINK
• CUSTOM BACKSPLASH
• NEW 2024 LUXURY VINYL FLOORS
• 2023 INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Other

• Possession: Possession at closing
• Location details: Unit in Building 6, Subdivision/Carrington unit 203; Directions: Livingston Rd to Aviano, south on Aviano Drive, then east to Carrington Circle; park in driveway or guest parking by the building
• Restrictions & lot: Condominium documents reference lot dimensions; Regular lot description; Restrictions: architectural controls, deeded, limited number of vehicles, no commercial, no motorcycles, no RV, no truck
• Multi-unit information: 2 units per floor; 8 units in building; 88 units in complex; 2 floors in building

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi access, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, community room, internet access, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; Gated community; Total annual recurring HOA fees: $8,760; Total one-time fees: $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Paved driveway; Guest parking available
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Central electric power
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); 2-story carriage/coach style unit; Contemporary design; Rear exposure faces north; Located in the Aviano development (Carrington sub-condo)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Built in 2007; Stucco finish
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Shutters (manual); Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior; Preserve view

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Icemaker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom with sitting area
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat (heat pump); Ceiling fans; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Fire sprinkler system; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in residence; Unfurnished; Four ceiling fans; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry located inside the residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $480k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 55% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,519/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 16680% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $480,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-58,770
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-53,499
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,756/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$730
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,159
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,867

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $655	+0% $515	+5% $375	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $297	+0% $515	+5% $733	+10% $951
Rate	-1.0pp $764	-0.5pp $641	base $515	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	25d	1	0.10mi
6670 Marbella Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2439	$8,400	$3.44	25d	1	0.29mi
6559 Monterey Pt Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$9,000	$3.91	22d	1	0.31mi
12667 Biscayne Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$8,500	$3.27	25d	1	0.37mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	25d	1	0.39mi
6548 Monterey Pt Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$6,000	$2.62	15d	1	0.40mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	25d	1	0.42mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	22d	1	0.42mi
6525 Monterey Pt Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$5,250	$2.29	15d	1	0.46mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	15d	1	0.47mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	25d	1	0.47mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	25d	1	0.48mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	25d	1	0.53mi
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	15d	1	0.58mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	0.58mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	15d	1	0.59mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.60mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.60mi
1105 Reserve Ct #307 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,995	$1.61	15d	1	0.62mi
1205 Reserve Way #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.71mi
3105 La Costa Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,235	$2.13	15d	20	0.94mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	25d	1	1.09mi
3255 Tamara Dr #4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,500	$1.74	15d	1	1.19mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1242	$3,300	$2.66	22d	3	1.23mi
3268 Amanda Ln #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,350	$1.64	15d	1	1.27mi
3304 Lisa Ln Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1272	$2,350	$1.85	15d	1	1.34mi
104 Siena Way #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$7,000	$4.83	25d	1	1.41mi
106 Siena Way #1508 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	1.42mi
5025 Maxwell Cir Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2021	$3,500	$1.73	15d	1	1.44mi
103 Tuscana Ct #1107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1412	$5,000	$3.54	25d	1	1.46mi
5050 Blauvelt Way Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2021	$3,700	$1.83	25d	1	1.46mi
155 Vintage Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,000	$3.33	15d	1	1.47mi
172 Vintage Cir #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$5,195	$2.93	15d	1	1.47mi
102 Tuscana Ct #901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $730 · $8,760/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $495,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $495,000 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,756 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,108 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$3,756
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,298
• − Management: −$5,298
• − HOA: −$8,760
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$357
• After-tax cash flow: $6,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $2,800 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed for Rent $2,950 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $495,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $440,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $334,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (MLS) $334,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-03-22 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-03-18 Listed $335,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2013-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,756 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.