3512 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1954 7,950 sqft lot $91/sqft · 10% below area Est $172k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home nestled in an established Lubbock neighborhood. This property offers a perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and appeal. Step inside to discover a warm and welcoming living space filled with natural light and beautiful wood floors ideal for relaxing evenings or entertaining guests. The layout flows effortlessly into a spacious dining area with open access to the kitchen. The home offers 4 bedrooms with an isolated master bedroom. The 4th bedroom offers wonderful built-in with windows overlooking the backyard. The laundry room features 2 closets and plenty of cabinets for extra storage. The refrigerator and the washing machine and dryer will convey with an ac

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Natural light
• Wonderful built-in

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• BEAUTIFUL WOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• ISOLATED MASTER BEDROOM
• WONDERFUL BUILT-IN
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area above grade: 1,694 (finished)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Garbage disposal; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maedgen El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 91% FRL); Hutchinson Middle (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 833 students, 49% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,813
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -12.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,702
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,872
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	43d	1	0.13mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	43d	1	0.28mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	43d	1	0.30mi
3620 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,200	$1.05	21d	1	0.41mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	21d	1	0.42mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	0.42mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	43d	1	0.48mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	21d	1	0.52mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	43d	1	0.60mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	43d	1	0.61mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	43d	1	0.62mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	0.63mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	13d	1	0.64mi
3709 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,400	$1.20	21d	1	0.64mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.64mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	21d	1	0.67mi
4211 41st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$1,599	$0.82	43d	1	0.67mi
3302 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,725	$1.04	21d	1	0.69mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.71mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	21d	1	0.73mi
3319 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,500	$0.99	43d	1	0.74mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	43d	1	0.75mi
3418 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,350	$1.01	21d	1	0.75mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.76mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	43d	1	0.77mi
3807 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	13d	1	0.80mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	21d	1	0.80mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	13d	1	0.80mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	43d	1	0.81mi
3404 25th St #3 Lubbock, TX	4.0	4.5	2234	$2,400	$1.07	21d	1	0.83mi
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.83mi
3119 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1888	$1,400	$0.74	21d	1	0.84mi
3813 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,400	$0.95	13d	1	0.86mi
3604 24th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2038	$2,300	$1.13	21d	1	0.87mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.88mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	21d	1	0.90mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.93mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	1.03mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	43d	1	1.04mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1222-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $150,000 Active 1222-char remark
3. 2015-06-19
   soldstatus
4. 2015-06-18
   soldstatus
5. 2015-04-20
   listed $98,800
6. 2014-11-20
   soldstatus
7. 1993-11-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$277
• After-tax cash flow: $3,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $150,000 LARMLS
• 2015-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-18 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2015-04-20 Listed $98,800 LARMLS
• 2014-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.