945 San Ildefonso Rd #16 · Los Alamos, NM 87544

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 321 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $147k · 42% under ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a great investment!? This single-wide home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, newer carpets, fresh paint, and an additional sunroom for added living space. All appliances are included, Huge shed in the backyard for extra storage will convey! A perfect combination of comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Sunroom
• Large shed

Tags

• SUNROOM
• LARGE SHED
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in NM, #1,377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Los Alamos Public Schools (town): math 61% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 29 in NM (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 14 units permitted in Los Alamos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Alamos County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (47%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.39%
• DSCR: 5.47
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
945 San Ildefonso Rd #32	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-4%)	11mo	$141,700	$92	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $113,092
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.01×
• Total profit: $261,975
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87544

• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $1,991

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 Rim Rd Unit 340-B Los Alamos, NM	2.0	1.0	1460	$3,500	$2.40	10d	1	0.66mi
55 Verde Ridge St Unit B Los Alamos, NM	2.0	1.5	1134	$2,400	$2.12	19d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   status Active
3. 2026-02-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-03
   price $85,000
5. 2025-12-29
   price $95,000
6. 2025-12-18
   status Active
7. 2025-12-14
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-19
   price $90,000
9. 2025-11-14
   status Active
10. 2025-11-01
    historical
11. 2025-10-28
    price $100,000
12. 2025-10-14
    status Active
13. 2025-10-14
    price $120,000
14. 2025-10-13
    historical
15. 2025-09-25
    price $130,000
16. 2025-07-14
    price $140,000
17. 2025-05-16
    price $150,000
18. 2025-04-16
    price $155,000
19. 2025-03-10
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,133
• − Management: −$3,133
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $23,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,752
• After-tax cash flow: $18,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Alamos Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $104,436
• Composite: 64.09/100
• National rank: #577
• State rank: #2 of 29 in NM

Livability — Los Alamos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Alamos, NM
• County: Los Alamos County · 13,598 people
• City population: 13,598
• Metro: Los Alamos, NM
• Population (ZIP): 13,598
• Household income: $138,583
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Los Alamos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,874 people
• By 2030: 18,157 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 19,073 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 20,010 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 22,686 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 23,523 · +31.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Alamos

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.2) · D 63.4% · R 33.2% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +23.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.9pp · 2024: 30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.2 2020: D+26.6 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.45%
• Current HPI: 192.7096
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Alamos, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-46.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-22 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $85,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $95,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-18 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-14 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $90,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-14 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-01 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $100,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $120,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-13 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $130,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $140,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $150,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $155,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $160,000 Southwest MLS