402 E Lima St · Forest, OH 45843

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1900 7,405 sqft lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-bedroom home, one-bathroom home has a living room, family room, bedroom and laundry room on the main floor. Located close to the village park. This property is ready for you to make it your own!

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Living room
• Family room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#745 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverdale Local (rural): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #342 of 656 in OH (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riverdale Elementary School (224 students, 0% FRL); Riverdale Middle School (math 42% / reading 56%, grade C-, #426 of 654 statewide, top 66%, 224 students, 0% FRL); Riverdale High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #303 of 781 statewide, top 42%, 344 students, 99% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.79%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 E Lima St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-11%)	5mo	$140,000	$109	76
306 E Lima St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,572 (+9%)	16mo	$32,000	$20	68
207 N Gormley St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$42,000	$27	68
106 E Dixon St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,420 (-1%)	18mo	$156,000	$110	68
317 Smith St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,348 (-6%)	2mo	$129,900	$96	66
603 S Gormley St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,516 (+5%)	6mo	$169,900	$112	65
511 S Davis St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-4%)	3mo	$95,200	$69	63
505 S Gormley St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	12mo	$204,900	$152	58
414 E Dixon St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,568 (+9%)	20mo	$227,000	$145	58
304 Wise St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+3%)	11mo	$135,000	$91	57
508 S Patterson St	0.41mi	3/3.5	1,576 (+9%)	9mo	$165,000	$105	47
611 S Patterson St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,624 (+13%)	18mo	$190,000	$117	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $56,008
• Equity at exit: $36,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.73×
• Total profit: $134,372
• Equity at exit: $68,120

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45843

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $530/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $450

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $632	-5% $616	+0% $601	+5% $585	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $553	+0% $601	+5% $648	+10% $696
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $615	base $601	+0.5pp $586	+1.0pp $572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-22
   price $55,000
3. 2025-12-05
   listed $76,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$530
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,713
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $5,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverdale Local
• NCES district ID: 3904751
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,043
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2146
• State rank: #342 of 656 in OH

Livability — Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #13441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest, OH
• County: Hardin · 33,287 people
• Population (ZIP): 3,908
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 0.6

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,000 people
• By 2030: 30,031 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 27,500 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 25,265 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 20,485 · -33.9%
• By 2100: 16,031 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.7) · D 22.2% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -54.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.7 2020: R+52.0 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Current HPI: 273.51
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — NORIS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $55,000 NORIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $76,000 NORIS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $530 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.