638 Fresh Pond Ave #375 · Calverton, NY 11933

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 2005 $153/sqft · 18% above area Est $210k · 18% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in Calverton Meadows, a private setting within a sought-after 55+ community, this beautifully maintained **2-bedroom, 2 full bath** Manufactured home offers a comfortable and easy lifestyle. The layout features a spacious living room, formal dining area, and a versatile den—ideal for a home office or additional sitting space. A bright and inviting Florida room (sunroom) fills the home with natural light and leads out to a nice-sized deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With no rear neighbors, the home provides an added sense of privacy and tranquility. **Recent improvements include a brand-new roof**, offering peace of mind for years to come, Newer Hot Water Heater and An outdoor shed which adds convenient extra storage. Monthly lot rent, effective May 1, 2026, is $922, with taxes of $319, totaling $1,242.35 per month. The lot rent covers water, cesspool service, street maintenance, common areas, and access to the community clubhouse. Enjoy a vibrant, low-maintenance lifestyle in this land-lease community where you own the home and lease the land, Whether full-time or weekend retreat. Residents have access to a clubhouse offering fitness equipment, games, and social activities. Conveniently located near North Fork beaches, wineries, and farm stands, this home is perfect for year-round living or a relaxing weekend getaway. Pet-friendly and designed for low-maintenance living

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Florida room
• Formal dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• VERSATILE DEN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• NICE SIZED DECK
• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.73%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,147
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 18.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
638 Fresh Pond Ave #305	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-3%)	8mo	$290,000	$185	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $317,334
• Equity at exit: $115,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.43×
• Total profit: $727,505
• Equity at exit: $181,079

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $4,458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,857

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,599	-5% $4,529	+0% $4,458	+5% $4,388	+10% $4,317
Rent	-10% $3,866	-5% $4,162	+0% $4,458	+5% $4,754	+10% $5,051
Rate	-1.0pp $4,584	-0.5pp $4,521	base $4,458	+0.5pp $4,394	+1.0pp $4,328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	25d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $249,000 1424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

    Tucked away in Calverton Meadows, a private setting within a sought-after 55+ community, this beautifully maintained **2-bedroom, 2 full bath** Manufactured home offers a comfortable and easy lifestyle. The layout features a spacious living room, formal dining area, and a versatile den—ideal for a home office or additional sitting space. A bright and inviting Florida room (sunroom) fills the home with natural light and leads out to a nice-sized deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With no rear neighbors, the home provides an added sense of privacy and tranquility. **Recent improvements include a brand-new roof**, offering peace of mind for years to come, Newer Hot Water Heater and An outdoor shed which adds convenient extra storage. Monthly lot rent, effective May 1, 2026, is $922, with taxes of $319, totaling $1,242.35 per month. The lot rent covers water, cesspool service, street maintenance, common areas, and access to the community clubhouse. Enjoy a vibrant, low-maintenance lifestyle in this land-lease community where you own the home and lease the land, Whether full-time or weekend retreat. Residents have access to a clubhouse offering fitness equipment, games, and social activities. Conveniently located near North Fork beaches, wineries, and farm stands, this home is perfect for year-round living or a relaxing weekend getaway. Pet-friendly and designed for low-maintenance living

15. 2026-04-22
    listed $275,000 Active 1424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

    Tucked away in Calverton Meadows, a private setting within a sought-after 55+ community, this beautifully maintained **2-bedroom, 2 full bath** Manufactured home offers a comfortable and easy lifestyle. The layout features a spacious living room, formal dining area, and a versatile den—ideal for a home office or additional sitting space. A bright and inviting Florida room (sunroom) fills the home with natural light and leads out to a nice-sized deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With no rear neighbors, the home provides an added sense of privacy and tranquility. **Recent improvements include a brand-new roof**, offering peace of mind for years to come, Newer Hot Water Heater and An outdoor shed which adds convenient extra storage. Monthly lot rent, effective May 1, 2026, is $922, with taxes of $319, totaling $1,242.35 per month. The lot rent covers water, cesspool service, street maintenance, common areas, and access to the community clubhouse. Enjoy a vibrant, low-maintenance lifestyle in this land-lease community where you own the home and lease the land, Whether full-time or weekend retreat. Residents have access to a clubhouse offering fitness equipment, games, and social activities. Conveniently located near North Fork beaches, wineries, and farm stands, this home is perfect for year-round living or a relaxing weekend getaway. Pet-friendly and designed for low-maintenance living

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,760/yr (+$147/mo · 256.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $52,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,594
• After-tax cash flow: $40,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid