77 Maple Wood Ln · Riverhead, NY 11901

$815,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $822k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Raised - Ranch with 2 different models to choose from. Enjoy modern living with a beautiful open concept. Hard wood floors throughout. Vaulted ceilings, 42 inch kitchen cabinets w/ granite counters and & s.s. Appliances. Living room w/ fireplace. MSTR STE. Bonus room. Your choice of one car or 2 car model., Additional information: Appearance:New,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Landscaping
• Deck
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• LANDSCAPING
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2022; Single-family property
• Construction: Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Located in the North Fork subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $815k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($84k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $815k).
• Recommended offer: $791k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 4.6% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $228k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $525k; list at $815k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $790,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.87%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $821,760
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Trout Brook Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,301 (-10%)	2mo	$780,000	$339	68
44 Forest Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,614 (+2%)	23mo	$755,000	$289	59
64 Wake-robin Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,693 (+5%)	11mo	$865,000	$321	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $314,697
• Equity at exit: $121,519

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $849,865
• Equity at exit: $70,466

Cash invested: $228,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,274
• Tax from tax record: −$953 /mo · $11,442/yr
• Insurance: −$340
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,344
• Net cashflow: $7,011

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,047

Max offer price $815,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $203,750
• Closing costs: $24,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	43d	1	0.30mi
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	43d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $815,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $815,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $815,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $815,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $815,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $815,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $815,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $815,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $815,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $815,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $815,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $815,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $815,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $815,000 Active
15. 2022-05-27
    soldstatus $525,000 Closed 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    New Raised - Ranch with 2 different models to choose from. Enjoy modern living with a beautiful open concept. Hard wood floors throughout. Vaulted ceilings, 42 inch kitchen cabinets w/ granite counters and & s.s. Appliances. Living room w/ fireplace. MSTR STE. Bonus room. Your choice of one car or 2 car model., Additional information: Appearance:New,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

16. 2021-04-04
    status Pending 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    New Raised - Ranch with 2 different models to choose from. Enjoy modern living with a beautiful open concept. Hard wood floors throughout. Vaulted ceilings, 42 inch kitchen cabinets w/ granite counters and & s.s. Appliances. Living room w/ fireplace. MSTR STE. Bonus room. Your choice of one car or 2 car model., Additional information: Appearance:New,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

17. 2021-03-12
    listed $529,900 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    New Raised - Ranch with 2 different models to choose from. Enjoy modern living with a beautiful open concept. Hard wood floors throughout. Vaulted ceilings, 42 inch kitchen cabinets w/ granite counters and & s.s. Appliances. Living room w/ fireplace. MSTR STE. Bonus room. Your choice of one car or 2 car model., Additional information: Appearance:New,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2021-02-11
    soldstatus $416,250
19. 2001-03-08
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,442 · $953/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,608 · $1,051/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,166/yr (+$97/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $191,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,653
• − Property taxes: −$11,442
• − Insurance: −$4,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,285
• − Management: −$15,285
• − Depreciation: −$23,709
• Taxable income: $75,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,148
• After-tax cash flow: $65,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1281.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $815,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-05-27 Sold (MLS) $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Listed $529,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $416,250 Public Records
• 2001-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,442 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.