174 Medina Dr #153 · Pacheco, CA 94553

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 137 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $228k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Classic 3 Bed/2 Bath Double-wide located in Sun Valley Village MH Park. Home has been recently remodeled with some of the finest material selections & finishes providing the look and feel of a high-end single-family residence. Upgrades included new Waterproof Vinyl Floors, fresh paint throughout, newer Stainless-Steel Appliances, newer Cabinets & Countertops are in Kitchen and Bathrooms; The new owner will have 1344 sq ft of living space to call home. Best of all, you will enjoy the spacious outdoor area that has been beautifully landscaped. This MH is in excellent condition and move-in ready. Appreciate the amenities that Sun Valley Village has to offer with its Pool, Spa, Club

Key facts

• Double-wide
• Spa
• Pool

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE
• WATERPROOF VINYL FLOORS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LANDSCAPED OUTDOOR AREA
• POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (2 spaces); Total of 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double wide; Fleetwood model; Built in 1971
• Construction: Double wide manufactured construction; No skirting
• Exterior features: Located in Sun Valley Village (manufactured home park); Updated/Remodeled; Restrictions: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Central gas heating; Window unit cooling; Vinyl flooring; Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#42 in CA, #1,544 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, schools D.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.08%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Algiers Dr #253	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$224,000	$156	75
281 Aria Dr #143	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-4%)	5mo	$260,000	$202	72
264 Safari #0204	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-6%)	4mo	$191,000	$152	72
166 Selima Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	11mo	$295,000	$203	72
233 Hieber Dr #266	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$260,000	$193	67
189 Suez Dr #72	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	8mo	$300,000	$198	62
368 Avenida Flores #75	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$229,000	$170	59
160 Sahara Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$182,400	$158	57
283 Sudan Loop #28	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	7mo	$355,000	$237	54
340 Avenida Flores	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$135,000	$108	47
189 Cairo Dr #53	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	16mo	$145,000	$94	46
327 La Vina	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$157,000	$109	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,619
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $74,299
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94553

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $909	-5% $820	+0% $730	+5% $641	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $478	-5% $604	+0% $730	+5% $856	+10% $982
Rate	-1.0pp $861	-0.5pp $796	base $730	+0.5pp $663	+1.0pp $595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Ryan Dr Pleasant Hill, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$3,364	$5.10	0d	6	0.73mi
235 Camelback Rd Pleasant Hill, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$3,528	$3.37	0d	10	0.79mi
630 Tempe Ct Pleasant Hill, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$2,450	$3.24	0d	4	0.88mi
747 Harvard Dr Pleasant Hill, CA	3.0	2.0	1188	$3,795	$3.19	13d	1	1.12mi
2838 Loma Vista Ave Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,995	$2.38	25d	1	1.14mi
2859 Foskett Ave Concord, CA	4.0	2.0	1520	$3,100	$2.04	12d	1	1.19mi
2756 Argyll Ave Unit C Concord, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	25d	1	1.30mi
773 Katydid Ct Martinez, CA	3.0	2.5	1582	$3,900	$2.47	24d	1	1.36mi
2007 Olivera Rd Unit C Concord, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$2,700	$2.77	6d	1	1.41mi
238 Ladybug Ln Martinez, CA	3.0	2.5	1516	$3,395	$2.24	44d	1	1.43mi
455 Odin Dr Pleasant Hill, CA	3.0	2.0	1562	$3,800	$2.43	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-05-08
   status Active
4. 2026-03-16
   historical Contingent - No Show
5. 2026-02-06
   status Active
6. 2025-12-05
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-14
   listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,062
• − Management: −$3,062
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $4,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $7,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pacheco

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1544

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacheco, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,643
• Household income: $124,130
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1207.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -736.61%
• Current HPI: 296.2457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2025-12-05 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $259,000 San Francisco MLS