21347 Morning Mist Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$379,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,863 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2006 6,489 sqft lot Est $374k · at est. $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into luxury and comfort with this exquisite sanctuary! The first-floor primary suite boasts an ensuite bathroom with a luxurious soaking tub and separate shower, and an enormous walk-in closet. Newly installed sleek vinyl plank flooring throughout the downstairs and a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, touchless faucet, pull-out cabinet shelving, and top-of-the-line cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to your private oasis - a huge back screened-in patio overlooking a conservation pond, complete with nebula lighting overhead and multiple exterior outlets for TV or outdoor entertaining. Additional features include a custom extra-wide driveway, secluded & private dead-end street, vinyl privacy fence backyard, and a spa negotiable for your ultimate relaxation. Plus, enjoy the convenience of a huge walk-in closet in the primary suite and access to the neighborhood park and dog walk area right on the cul-de-sac. Connect with nature easily as this section of Wilderness Lake Preserve seamlessly connects to Connerton for easy biking and walking. Wilderness Lake Preserve offers a unique blend of serene natural beauty and convenient amenities, making it an ideal community for families and nature enthusiasts alike. Situated in close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School, an International Baccalaureate® World School, residents benefit from easy access to quality education for their children. Within Wilderness Lake Preserve, residents enjoy access to a wealth of amenities, including scenic nature trails, tranquil lakes perfect for fishing or kayaking, resort style pool, jacuzzi, lap pool, club house, fitness center, movie theater, The Lodge clubhouse, and lush green spaces ideal for picnics or outdoor recreation. The community's focus on preserving its natural surroundings creates a peaceful atmosphere, allowing residents to connect with nature right in their own backyard. In addition to its natural beauty, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers convenient access to everyday essentials, with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment options just a short drive away. Plus, its close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School ensures that families have easy access to excellent educational opportunities for their children, enhancing the overall quality of life for residents of the community. Whether you're looking to enjoy the tranquility of nature or take advantage of convenient amenities and educational opportunities, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers the perfect balance for modern living. Discover the beauty and convenience of life in this exceptional community today! All of this, with a very low HOA fee of just $150 annually! Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity - reach out today!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Updated kitchen
• Private retreat

Tags

• SECLUDED DEAD-END STREET
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• LUXURIOUS ENSUITE BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applicable; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee of $265 (monthly approx. $22.08); HOA amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, playground, tennis courts, basketball court, recreation facilities; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, management, private road and recreational facilities; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, fitness center, golf carts OK, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories; Faces south
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with public records source for building area
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,257 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,463
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7533 Deer Path Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (-2%)	0mo	$339,900	$187	61
8128 Sequester Loop	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,754 (-6%)	1mo	$389,000	$222	60
7642 Citrus Blossom Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,083 (+12%)	1mo	$400,000	$192	60
8144 Sanguinelli Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (+7%)	1mo	$450,000	$227	56
21422 Diamonte Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-9%)	2mo	$328,000	$194	51
20907 Tangor Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-10%)	2mo	$345,000	$205	50
20904 Tangor Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-12%)	0mo	$285,000	$173	49
7540 Kinnow Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,042 (+10%)	3mo	$390,000	$191	48
21752 Indian Summer Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,092 (+12%)	1mo	$497,500	$238	48
21717 Billowy Jaunt Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,083 (+12%)	2mo	$420,000	$202	47
20907 Diamonte Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-9%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	45
20738 Nectarine Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (+11%)	3mo	$350,000	$170	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-51,243
• Equity at exit: $81,982

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-39,874
• Equity at exit: $78,053

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$595 /mo · $7,144/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,504

Max offer price $342,076

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-107	+0% $-214	+5% $-322	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-342	+0% $-214	+5% $-86	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-117	base $-214	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7655 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2070	$3,100	$1.50	12d	1	0.39mi
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	26d	1	0.42mi
7442 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,470	$1.19	26d	1	0.48mi
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	3d	1	0.87mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	19d	1	1.06mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	14d	1	1.18mi
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$3,338	$2.38	1d	21	1.24mi
20602 Monza Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,500	$1.37	26d	1	1.42mi
20781 Monza Loop Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2615	$3,150	$1.20	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $379,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $379,900 Active
16. 2026-03-25
    historical
17. 2026-01-20
    price $414,999
18. 2026-01-12
    price $419,999
19. 2025-12-04
    price $424,999
20. 2025-10-21
    price $439,900
21. 2025-09-18
    listed $449,999 Active
22. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus $425,000
23. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus $425,000 Closed 2767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2767 chars)

    Step into luxury and comfort with this exquisite sanctuary! The first-floor primary suite boasts an ensuite bathroom with a luxurious soaking tub and separate shower, and an enormous walk-in closet. Newly installed sleek vinyl plank flooring throughout the downstairs and a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, touchless faucet, pull-out cabinet shelving, and top-of-the-line cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to your private oasis - a huge back screened-in patio overlooking a conservation pond, complete with nebula lighting overhead and multiple exterior outlets for TV or outdoor entertaining. Additional features include a custom extra-wide driveway, secluded & private dead-end street, vinyl privacy fence backyard, and a spa negotiable for your ultimate relaxation. Plus, enjoy the convenience of a huge walk-in closet in the primary suite and access to the neighborhood park and dog walk area right on the cul-de-sac. Connect with nature easily as this section of Wilderness Lake Preserve seamlessly connects to Connerton for easy biking and walking. Wilderness Lake Preserve offers a unique blend of serene natural beauty and convenient amenities, making it an ideal community for families and nature enthusiasts alike. Situated in close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School, an International Baccalaureate® World School, residents benefit from easy access to quality education for their children. Within Wilderness Lake Preserve, residents enjoy access to a wealth of amenities, including scenic nature trails, tranquil lakes perfect for fishing or kayaking, resort style pool, jacuzzi, lap pool, club house, fitness center, movie theater, The Lodge clubhouse, and lush green spaces ideal for picnics or outdoor recreation. The community's focus on preserving its natural surroundings creates a peaceful atmosphere, allowing residents to connect with nature right in their own backyard. In addition to its natural beauty, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers convenient access to everyday essentials, with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment options just a short drive away. Plus, its close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School ensures that families have easy access to excellent educational opportunities for their children, enhancing the overall quality of life for residents of the community. Whether you're looking to enjoy the tranquility of nature or take advantage of convenient amenities and educational opportunities, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers the perfect balance for modern living. Discover the beauty and convenience of life in this exceptional community today! All of this, with a very low HOA fee of just $150 annually! Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity - reach out today!

24. 2024-03-25
    status Pending 2767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2767 chars)

    Step into luxury and comfort with this exquisite sanctuary! The first-floor primary suite boasts an ensuite bathroom with a luxurious soaking tub and separate shower, and an enormous walk-in closet. Newly installed sleek vinyl plank flooring throughout the downstairs and a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, touchless faucet, pull-out cabinet shelving, and top-of-the-line cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to your private oasis - a huge back screened-in patio overlooking a conservation pond, complete with nebula lighting overhead and multiple exterior outlets for TV or outdoor entertaining. Additional features include a custom extra-wide driveway, secluded & private dead-end street, vinyl privacy fence backyard, and a spa negotiable for your ultimate relaxation. Plus, enjoy the convenience of a huge walk-in closet in the primary suite and access to the neighborhood park and dog walk area right on the cul-de-sac. Connect with nature easily as this section of Wilderness Lake Preserve seamlessly connects to Connerton for easy biking and walking. Wilderness Lake Preserve offers a unique blend of serene natural beauty and convenient amenities, making it an ideal community for families and nature enthusiasts alike. Situated in close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School, an International Baccalaureate® World School, residents benefit from easy access to quality education for their children. Within Wilderness Lake Preserve, residents enjoy access to a wealth of amenities, including scenic nature trails, tranquil lakes perfect for fishing or kayaking, resort style pool, jacuzzi, lap pool, club house, fitness center, movie theater, The Lodge clubhouse, and lush green spaces ideal for picnics or outdoor recreation. The community's focus on preserving its natural surroundings creates a peaceful atmosphere, allowing residents to connect with nature right in their own backyard. In addition to its natural beauty, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers convenient access to everyday essentials, with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment options just a short drive away. Plus, its close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School ensures that families have easy access to excellent educational opportunities for their children, enhancing the overall quality of life for residents of the community. Whether you're looking to enjoy the tranquility of nature or take advantage of convenient amenities and educational opportunities, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers the perfect balance for modern living. Discover the beauty and convenience of life in this exceptional community today! All of this, with a very low HOA fee of just $150 annually! Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity - reach out today!

25. 2024-03-05
    listed $459,900 Active 2767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2767 chars)

    Step into luxury and comfort with this exquisite sanctuary! The first-floor primary suite boasts an ensuite bathroom with a luxurious soaking tub and separate shower, and an enormous walk-in closet. Newly installed sleek vinyl plank flooring throughout the downstairs and a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, touchless faucet, pull-out cabinet shelving, and top-of-the-line cabinetry and countertops. Step outside to your private oasis - a huge back screened-in patio overlooking a conservation pond, complete with nebula lighting overhead and multiple exterior outlets for TV or outdoor entertaining. Additional features include a custom extra-wide driveway, secluded & private dead-end street, vinyl privacy fence backyard, and a spa negotiable for your ultimate relaxation. Plus, enjoy the convenience of a huge walk-in closet in the primary suite and access to the neighborhood park and dog walk area right on the cul-de-sac. Connect with nature easily as this section of Wilderness Lake Preserve seamlessly connects to Connerton for easy biking and walking. Wilderness Lake Preserve offers a unique blend of serene natural beauty and convenient amenities, making it an ideal community for families and nature enthusiasts alike. Situated in close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School, an International Baccalaureate® World School, residents benefit from easy access to quality education for their children. Within Wilderness Lake Preserve, residents enjoy access to a wealth of amenities, including scenic nature trails, tranquil lakes perfect for fishing or kayaking, resort style pool, jacuzzi, lap pool, club house, fitness center, movie theater, The Lodge clubhouse, and lush green spaces ideal for picnics or outdoor recreation. The community's focus on preserving its natural surroundings creates a peaceful atmosphere, allowing residents to connect with nature right in their own backyard. In addition to its natural beauty, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers convenient access to everyday essentials, with nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment options just a short drive away. Plus, its close proximity to Land O' Lakes High School ensures that families have easy access to excellent educational opportunities for their children, enhancing the overall quality of life for residents of the community. Whether you're looking to enjoy the tranquility of nature or take advantage of convenient amenities and educational opportunities, Wilderness Lake Preserve offers the perfect balance for modern living. Discover the beauty and convenience of life in this exceptional community today! All of this, with a very low HOA fee of just $150 annually! Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity - reach out today!

26. 2014-10-31
    soldstatus $147,300 Sold
27. 2014-10-02
    status Pending
28. 2014-06-10
    historical
29. 2014-05-20
    price $169,900
30. 2014-05-20
    price $149,900
31. 2014-05-20
    price $179,900
32. 2014-05-20
    price $159,900
33. 2014-05-20
    price $194,900
34. 2014-05-20
    status Active
35. 2014-04-19
    listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,144 · $595/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,144 · $595/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$7,144
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,103
• − Management: −$3,103
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$9,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,173
• After-tax cash flow: $-396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $379,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $414,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $419,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $424,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $439,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listed $449,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-05 Listed $459,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-31 Sold (MLS) $147,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-20 Price Changed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-19 Listed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,144 · +47.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.