1530 Misty Valley Dr · Dacula, GA 30045

$399,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2002 0.42 ac lot $118/sqft · 19% below area Est $487k · 18% under $42/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Granite countertops
• 0.42 acre lot

Tags

• TWO STORY FOYER ENTRANCE
• FORMAL DINING AND LIVING ROOM
• TWO STORY FAMILY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Dacula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#211 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,858 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,967
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -18.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1609 Kamp Springs Ave	0.13mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,226 (-4%)	4mo	$500,000	$155	74
1631 Lapland Dr	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,213 (-5%)	6mo	$475,000	$148	74
1423 Sooner Ct	0.46mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,210 (-5%)	0mo	$435,000	$136	61
1661 Hedington Ct	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,880 (-15%)	4mo	$372,000	$129	58
1288 Mitford Ln	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,056 (-10%)	6mo	$462,000	$151	57
1778 Lacebark Elm Way	0.53mi	4/3.0	3,110 (-8%)	4mo	$601,255	$193	56
1751 Lacebark Elm Way	0.55mi	4/3.0	3,110 (-8%)	4mo	$519,735	$167	56
1798 Lacebark Elm Way	0.51mi	4/3.0	3,110 (-8%)	6mo	$587,900	$189	56
1269 Victoria Walk Ln	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,026 (-10%)	1mo	$495,000	$164	44
939 Redstone Rd	0.63mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,074 (-9%)	1mo	$445,000	$145	44
976 Redstone Rd	0.67mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,178 (-6%)	5mo	$489,000	$154	44
1628 Lacebark Elm Way	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,873 (-15%)	2mo	$521,165	$181	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-96,218
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-147,871
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30045

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,377/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,585

Max offer price $336,709

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1765 Campbell Ives Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	2883	$2,299	$0.80	15d	1	0.13mi
1268 Mitford Ln Dacula, GA	4.0	2.5	2414	$3,400	$1.41	5d	1	0.36mi
1427 Trident Maple Chase Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.0	2676	$3,350	$1.25	44d	1	0.40mi
573 Princeton Elm Pl Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	4.0	3242	$3,500	$1.08	5d	1	0.42mi
1307 Trident Maple Chase Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	3.0	3034	$2,995	$0.99	44d	1	0.48mi
1466 Wilson Manor Cir Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	2.5	2912	$2,524	$0.87	18d	1	0.51mi
1120 Trident Maple Chase Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.0	2676	$3,500	$1.31	44d	1	0.59mi
1259 Victoria Walk Ln Dacula, GA	4.0	5.5	3662	$1,504	$0.41	13d	1	0.64mi
850 Elderberry Ct Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	3.0	2498	$3,650	$1.46	24d	1	0.70mi
719 Saffron Blvd Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	4.5	3123	$4,700	$1.50	10d	1	0.71mi
1936 Waycross Ln Dacula, GA	5.0	3.0	2535	$2,600	$1.03	19d	1	1.07mi
1564 Log Cabin Ln Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	2566	$2,999	$1.17	44d	1	1.28mi
1320 Martins Down Dr Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.5	2488	$1,200	$0.48	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $399,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $399,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    status Back On Market 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

15. 2026-05-06
    status Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

16. 2026-05-02
    status Pending 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

17. 2026-04-28
    status Under Contract 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

18. 2026-04-28
    historical Active Under Contract 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

19. 2026-04-22
    listed $399,000 New 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

20. 2026-04-22
    listed $399,000 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Brick front beauty in swim community conveniently located to freeways, shopping, and eateries. Open spacious floor plan, where everyone can connect with each other. Two story foyer entrance, formal dining and living room PLUS two story family room on main floor and you should check out the size of this kitchen and eat in area, with granite countertops. unfinished daylight basement stubbed and framed for expansion. . 3 generously sized bedrooms in addition to oversized primary suite. Primary bath has dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closets. 2 car garage with storage closet. All this plus it has a full unfinished basement, use as storage or finish they way you wish all this and a fairly level fenced backyard. Home sits in a community lending opportunity area, purchaser may be able to get better rate with participating lender.

21. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus $375,000 Sold
22. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus $375,000 Closed
23. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus $375,000
24. 2022-10-03
    status Under Contract
25. 2022-09-29
    status Under Contract
26. 2022-09-29
    status Pending
27. 2022-09-14
    price $379,900
28. 2022-09-14
    price $379,900
29. 2022-09-14
    price $379,900
30. 2022-08-27
    status Back On Market
31. 2022-08-16
    status Active
32. 2022-08-16
    status Back On Market
33. 2022-08-09
    status Pending
34. 2022-08-09
    status Under Contract
35. 2022-08-06
    listed $399,900 New
36. 2022-07-28
    status Under Contract
37. 2022-07-18
    listed $399,900 New
38. 2022-07-18
    listed $399,900 Active
39. 2014-04-22
    historical
40. 2014-04-07
    price $200,000 Reduced
41. 2014-03-12
    price $210,000
42. 2014-03-07
    price $212,000 Reduced
43. 2014-03-07
    status Reduced
44. 2014-03-07
    historical
45. 2014-02-26
    listed $215,000 New
46. 2002-11-13
    soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,377 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,377 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$6,377
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,013
• − Management: −$3,013
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$11,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dacula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #12728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 276,247
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 44,993
• Household income: $104,350
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 659.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% American 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.05%
• Current HPI: 228.0768
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+90.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $399,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $399,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $375,000 FMLS
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $375,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-03 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-09-29 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-09-29 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $379,900 GAMLS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $379,900 GAMLS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $379,900 FMLS
• 2022-08-27 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-08-16 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-08-16 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-08-09 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-08-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-08-06 Listed $399,900 GAMLS
• 2022-07-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listed $399,900 FMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listed $399,900 GAMLS
• 2014-04-22 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-04-07 Price Changed $200,000 GAMLS
• 2014-03-12 Price Changed $210,000 GAMLS
• 2014-03-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-03-07 Price Changed $212,000 GAMLS
• 2014-03-07 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-02-26 Listed $215,000 GAMLS
• 2002-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,377 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.