853 Waterfall Dr NE · Rio Rancho, NM 87144

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2009 4,792 sqft lot Est $329k · 13% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious home in Rio Rancho featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. With a functional layout, generous living spaces, and great natural light, this property offers incredible potential for homeowners and investors alike. The home does need new carpet and a few cosmetic updates, but it has been priced accordingly for a quick sale--making it a fantastic opportunity to add your personal touch and build instant equity. Whether you're looking for your next home or an investment property, this is a value-packed opportunity you won't want to miss. This home combines space, potential, and affordability in one great package. Schedule your showing today before it's go

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $35 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Faces west; Resale property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Pitched shingle roof; Year built (owner reported)
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Private yard; Corner lot; Planned unit development; Wall fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Combination heating; Refrigerated cooling (central)
• Interior features: Bay windows; Breakfast bar; Dual sinks; Garden/Roman tub; Loft; Multiple living areas; Separate shower; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-830/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cielo Azul Elementary (698 students, 18% FRL); Rio Rancho Middle School (1,143 students, 24% FRL); Cleveland High School (math 46% / reading 70%, grade C, #32 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 2,631 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 20% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 1325 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,390 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,944
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3728 Clear Creek Rd NE	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,819 (-7%)	1mo	$345,000	$190	77
3929 Desert Willow Dr NE	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,110 (+8%)	3mo	$335,000	$159	68
3853 Tranquil Meadows Dr NE	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,195 (+12%)	3mo	$350,000	$159	67
612 Playful Meadows Dr NE	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,795 (-8%)	1mo	$335,000	$187	66
3444 Shadow Meadows Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,208 (+13%)	3mo	$370,000	$168	64
724 Morning Meadows Dr NE	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,763 (-10%)	1mo	$339,900	$193	63
495 Burton Meadows Dr NE	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,051 (+5%)	3mo	$300,000	$146	59
536 Playful Meadows Dr NE	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (-10%)	5mo	$325,000	$185	58
3724 Oasis Springs Rd NE	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-9%)	3mo	$329,900	$186	55
509 Soothing Meadows Dr NE	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,180 (+11%)	7mo	$340,000	$156	54
3284 San Ildefonso Loop NE	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,144 (+10%)	1mo	$345,000	$161	49
420 Soothing Meadows Dr NE	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,198 (+12%)	7mo	$315,000	$143	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,621
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,038
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87144

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 1325
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,133/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $272,784

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $12	+0% $-69	+5% $-150	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-157	+0% $-69	+5% $19	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $3	base $-69	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3612 Clear Creek Rd NE Rio Rancho, NM	4.0	2.5	2574	$2,395	$0.93	3d	1	0.22mi
3853 Oasis Springs Rd NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,950	$1.58	23d	1	0.36mi
3305 Tin Cup Rd NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,800	$1.42	4d	1	0.51mi
1382 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,295	$1.39	17d	1	0.55mi
1386 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,395	$1.40	3d	1	0.55mi
1370 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,295	$1.39	45d	1	0.56mi
3709 Cacto Ct Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,295	$1.39	45d	1	0.61mi
1334 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,395	$1.40	3d	1	0.62mi
1311 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,295	$1.39	4d	1	0.63mi
1307 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,295	$1.39	4d	1	0.63mi
1315 Ashlynn Pl Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,295	$1.39	3d	1	0.63mi
629 Santa Fe Meadows Dr NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,795	$1.16	25d	1	0.65mi
3190 Wingate Meadows Dr NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,995	$1.39	25d	1	0.67mi
480 Cimarron Meadows Ct NE Rio Rancho, NM	2.0	1.0	1436	$1,769	$1.23	17d	1	0.75mi
3019 Glorieta Meadows Dr NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,150	$1.30	25d	1	0.79mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $285,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    status Pending
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,133
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,396
• After-tax cash flow: $566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Rancho Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500010
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 48.00%
• Median HH income: $59,410
• Composite: 52.29/100
• National rank: #1595
• State rank: #4 of 29 in NM

Livability — Rio Rancho

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #7253

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rancho, NM
• County: Sandoval County · 110,336 people
• City population: 110,336
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 51,837
• Household income: $94,550
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Sandoval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,072 people
• By 2030: 161,714 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 171,831 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 178,536 · +15.1%
• By 2075: 192,517 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 197,952 · +27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 24% Native American 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Sandoval

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.8) · D 51.8% · R 46.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+2.7 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.68%
• Current HPI: 215.124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $285,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,133 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.