510 Hickory St · Syracuse, NY 13203

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-unit multifamily investment opportunity that is located within walking distance to St. Joeseph's Health Hospital, perfect for both investors and owner-occupants looking to generate strong rental income. Each unit offers the potential to produce approximately $1,300–$1,650 per month, making this a solid addition to any portfolio. Over the past five years, the property has undergone significant updates including all new flooring, fully renovated kitchens and bathrooms in both units, and updated windows. The exterior features a large driveway with ample parking and a spacious 2-car garage, adding convenience and value for tenants or owners alike. A w

Key facts

• Large driveway
• Renovated kitchens
• Renovated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• RENOVATED KITCHENS
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• AMPLE PARKING
• SPACIOUS GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $840/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,457/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $165k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.62%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Josephine St	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,212 (-0%)	16mo	$83,000	$38	67
606 N Mcbride St	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+9%)	15mo	$185,000	$76	64
128 John St	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,269 (+2%)	6mo	$129,000	$57	64
317 E Division St	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-9%)	2mo	$119,900	$59	60
1213 N State St	0.74mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,157 (-3%)	2mo	$72,000	$33	54
635 E Division St	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,376 (+7%)	11mo	$110,000	$46	53
1021 N Townsend St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-9%)	6mo	$69,900	$34	50
313-315 Beecher St	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,132 (-4%)	19mo	$109,000	$51	50
115 John St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,516 (+13%)	5mo	$120,000	$48	46
113 Grumbach Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,888 (-15%)	0mo	$183,000	$97	44
1107 Butternut St	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,002 (-10%)	9mo	$34,900	$17	43
2028 Lodi St	0.74mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,004 (-10%)	18mo	$74,000	$37	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $98,486
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $306,626
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13203

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,412/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $1,679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,773	-5% $1,726	+0% $1,679	+5% $1,633	+10% $1,586
Rent	-10% $1,406	-5% $1,543	+0% $1,679	+5% $1,816	+10% $1,952
Rate	-1.0pp $1,762	-0.5pp $1,721	base $1,679	+0.5pp $1,637	+1.0pp $1,593

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,456
Total (2 units)			$3,457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
447 E Washington St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	2095	$2,100	$1.00	14d	1	0.37mi
746 E Laurel St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.43mi
365 Green St Syracuse, NY	5.0	3.5	2263	$3,300	$1.46	22d	1	0.63mi
712 Oak St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	2461	$1,700	$0.69	22d	1	0.76mi
1108 Madison St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1580	$2,080	$1.32	44d	1	1.08mi
1205 Madison St Fl -1 Syracuse, NY	4.0	3.0	2988	$2,640	$0.88	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2011-03-14
   soldstatus $70,000
4. 2009-01-30
   soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,412 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 48.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,412
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,319
• − Management: −$3,319
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $18,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,456
• After-tax cash flow: $15,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,180
• Household income: $46,997
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.69%
• Current HPI: 263.2588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.39%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $165,000 CNYIS
• 2011-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,412 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.