86-21 233 St · New York, NY 11427

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,541 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1920 3,325 sqft lot ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale.

Key facts

• 3,325 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,971/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.73%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $927,682
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23026 87th Ave	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,551 (+1%)	2mo	$930,000	$600	81
221-72 91st Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	2mo	$745,000	$475	75
86-30 233rd St	0.03mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,365 (-11%)	4mo	$962,000	$705	70
80-50 232nd St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+6%)	1mo	$995,000	$610	69
82-39 232nd St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-11%)	4mo	$850,000	$617	68
82-11 232nd St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-11%)	2mo	$820,000	$595	68
89-25 238th St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,586 (+3%)	4mo	$760,000	$479	66
8807 Sabre St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (-14%)	1mo	$950,000	$719	58
9249 Springfield Blvd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-9%)	2mo	$825,000	$586	51
92-14 221st St	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,705 (+11%)	1mo	$835,000	$490	50
24120 83rd Ave	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,344 (-13%)	1mo	$1,085,000	$807	36
92-24 218 St	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,760 (+14%)	5mo	$1,060,000	$602	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $8,292
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $80,763
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11427

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,672/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$834
• Net cashflow: $888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,846

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,057	-5% $973	+0% $888	+5% $804	+10% $719
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $731	+0% $888	+5% $1,045	+10% $1,202
Rate	-1.0pp $1,039	-0.5pp $964	base $888	+0.5pp $811	+1.0pp $732

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8258 235th St Queens Village, NY	4.0	2.5	1496	$4,800	$3.21	11d	1	0.11mi
86-46 Range St Queens Village, NY	3.0	1.5	1680	$4,500	$2.68	0d	1	0.17mi
222-40 92nd Rd Unit 2nd Floor Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	1120	$3,400	$3.04	15d	1	0.52mi
239-13 86th Ave Unit 2nd Floor Jamaica, NY	2.0	2.0	1772	$2,700	$1.52	14d	1	0.58mi
8112 Commonwealth Blvd Unit 1 Queens, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$3,800	$1.90	25d	1	0.81mi
94-86 218th St Unit 2nd Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,100	$1.55	11d	1	1.02mi
94-86 218th St Unit 1st Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	11d	1	1.02mi
218-13 Jamaica Ave Unit 2FL Jamaica, NY	4.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	25d	1	1.02mi
24820 Jericho Tpke Unit 1A Floral Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$3,250	$1.91	2d	1	1.05mi
24820 Jericho Tpke Unit 2nd Floral Park, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,900	$2.29	2d	1	1.05mi
8422 Little Neck Pkwy Floral Park, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,950	$1.48	5d	1	1.23mi
8315 Little Neck Pkwy Glen Oaks, NY	4.0	2.0	1515	$3,600	$2.38	25d	1	1.24mi
256-10 Hillside Ave Unit 1st Floor Glen Oaks, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$2,800	$1.77	25d	1	1.36mi
5775 Cloverdale Blvd Oakland Gardens, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$4,200	$3.50	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-21
   listed $299,000 Active
3. 2006-10-31
   soldstatus $520,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,672 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,672 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$6,672
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,812
• − Management: −$3,812
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $6,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $9,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,607
• Household income: $88,980
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 51% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Other Indo-European 16% Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -436.66%
• Current HPI: 297.7969
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-42.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,672 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.