4550 S Lakeview Dr · Santo, TX 76453

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1986 0.94 ac lot $86/sqft · 59% below area Est $231k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just outside of Gordon down the road from Lake Palo Pinto lies this 2 bed 2 bath brick home and large insulated workshop with power. Workshop is only a few years old. Home needs love but can be quickly brought back to life. Boat ramp is about a half mile down the road into Palo Pinto Lake. Get a taste of lake living at a fraction of the price of any waterfront property. Property next door is also listed for sale. Property is fed by a well on adjacent property. Co-op water tap is being requested should their be a different buyer for the half acre lot next door. All offers need submitted via FinalOffer.com

Key facts

• Lake living
• Boat ramp
• 0.94 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE INSULATED WORKSHOP
• BOAT RAMP
• LAKE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 0.5% in Santo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santo ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #124 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,083 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.38%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,124
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -39.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Lake Point Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,540 (-5%)	15mo	$674,000	$438	65
380 Chism Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (0%)	8mo	$449,000	$276	58
2350 N Lakeview Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (+8%)	22mo	$525,000	$300	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $37,156
• Equity at exit: $76,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $107,229
• Equity at exit: $130,920

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76453

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,765/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $139,000 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   Located just outside of Gordon down the road from Lake Palo Pinto lies this 2 bed 2 bath brick home and large insulated workshop with power. Workshop is only a few years old. Home needs love but can be quickly brought back to life. Boat ramp is about a half mile down the road into Palo Pinto Lake. Get a taste of lake living at a fraction of the price of any waterfront property. Property next door is also listed for sale. Property is fed by a well on adjacent property. Co-op water tap is being requested should their be a different buyer for the half acre lot next door. All offers need submitted via FinalOffer.com

2. 2026-04-03
   listed $150,000 Active 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   Located just outside of Gordon down the road from Lake Palo Pinto lies this 2 bed 2 bath brick home and large insulated workshop with power. Workshop is only a few years old. Home needs love but can be quickly brought back to life. Boat ramp is about a half mile down the road into Palo Pinto Lake. Get a taste of lake living at a fraction of the price of any waterfront property. Property next door is also listed for sale. Property is fed by a well on adjacent property. Co-op water tap is being requested should their be a different buyer for the half acre lot next door. All offers need submitted via FinalOffer.com

3. 2010-11-24
   soldstatus Closed 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Fixer Upper across the road from the lake, walk to public boat ramp. 3 lots, 2 houses. 1.58 acres in all. Property to be sold AS IS.

4. 2010-10-15
   historical 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Fixer Upper across the road from the lake, walk to public boat ramp. 3 lots, 2 houses. 1.58 acres in all. Property to be sold AS IS.

5. 2009-02-10
   listed $50,000 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Fixer Upper across the road from the lake, walk to public boat ramp. 3 lots, 2 houses. 1.58 acres in all. Property to be sold AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,765 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 44.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,765
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $1,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839390
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,304
• Composite: 45.93/100
• National rank: #2543
• State rank: #124 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,474

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Current HPI: 250.4798
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2010-11-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-10-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-02-10 Listed $50,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,765 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.