5643 Lotus Ave · St. Louis, MO 63112

$13,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1900 4,800 sqft lot $23/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an AS-IS sale, not a home makeover project, needs full rehab, would make a great rental. Utilities are off, bring a flashlight, seller can close quick.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 69.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $96 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $417 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,066 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 69.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 226.83%
• DSCR: 11.09
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,738
• List price: $13,900
• Delta: -70.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2909 Clara Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	684 (+11%)	8mo	$49,500	$72	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.30×
• Total profit: $43,979
• Equity at exit: $2,073

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.69×
• Total profit: $96,098
• Equity at exit: $1,202

Cash invested: $3,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63112

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$73
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $111/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $111

Max offer price $13,900

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,475
• Closing costs: $417
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1610 Kingshighway Blvd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	525	$779	$1.48	2d	6	1.00mi
5936 Etzel Ave Unit 5936A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	500	$813	$1.63	43d	1	1.01mi
5345 Cabanne Ave Unit 5345 Cabanne 3N St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	630	$800	$1.27	43d	1	1.03mi
5803 Cabanne Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	4d	1	1.13mi
1131 Hodiamont Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	43d	1	1.13mi
5740 Cabanne Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$625	$0.96	43d	1	1.16mi
807 Clara Ave Unit 34 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$799	$1.23	17d	1	1.20mi
807 Clara Ave Apt 33 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$799	$1.23	43d	1	1.20mi
807 Clara Ave Unit 3 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	7d	1	1.20mi
807 Clara Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	43d	1	1.20mi
807 Clara Ave Unit 7 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	17d	1	1.20mi
1019 N Skinker Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1137	$2,045	$1.80	1d	9	1.33mi
5535 Delmar Blvd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,970	$2.16	1d	14	1.35mi
5457 Delmar Blvd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	481	$806	$1.67	1d	7	1.36mi
5621 Delmar Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	612	$1,087	$1.77	2d	4	1.38mi
5560 Delmar Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	752	$1,395	$1.85	16d	1	1.40mi
5904 Enright Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	512	$1,100	$2.15	2d	3	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $13,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $13,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-04-29
   price $14,900 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   This is an AS-IS sale, not a home makeover project, needs full rehab, would make a great rental. Utilities are off, bring a flashlight, seller can close quick.

4. 2026-04-16
   price $15,900 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   This is an AS-IS sale, not a home makeover project, needs full rehab, would make a great rental. Utilities are off, bring a flashlight, seller can close quick.

5. 2026-04-03
   price $17,900 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   This is an AS-IS sale, not a home makeover project, needs full rehab, would make a great rental. Utilities are off, bring a flashlight, seller can close quick.

6. 2026-03-26
   listed $19,900 Active 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   This is an AS-IS sale, not a home makeover project, needs full rehab, would make a great rental. Utilities are off, bring a flashlight, seller can close quick.

7. 2026-03-26
   historical $19,900 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   This is an AS-IS sale, not a home makeover project, needs full rehab, would make a great rental. Utilities are off, bring a flashlight, seller can close quick.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $111 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $135 · $11/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$779
• − Property taxes: −$111
• − Insurance: −$70
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,001
• − Management: −$1,001
• − Depreciation: −$404
• Taxable income: $9,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $6,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,985
• Household income: $45,542
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1457.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 24% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.94%
• Current HPI: 115.1863
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $14,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $15,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $17,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $19,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $19,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $111 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.