1405 E Cherry St · Plant City, FL 33563

$154,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1953 7,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUTE BUNGALOW STYLE HOME, MOVE IN READY. 2012 NEW PLUMBING, NEW KITCHEN CABINETS. FENCED BACK YARD. MINUTES FROM I-4 FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR ORLANDO

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing; Residential zoning (R-1)
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.17-acre lot (approx. 75 x 100)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $154k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,818
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,049
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33563

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $387	+0% $343	+5% $300	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $280	+0% $343	+5% $406	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $383	base $343	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2120 Village Park Rd Plant City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,568	$1.53	0d	14	0.54mi
1001 Jenkins St Unit A Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,050	$2.05	25d	1	0.72mi
1408 Spencer Ct Apt A Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	754	$1,200	$1.59	25d	1	0.89mi
1321 E Alabama St Plant City, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	25d	1	0.97mi
113 S Collins St Apt 2 Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	25d	1	1.04mi
507 W Baker St Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,199	$1.20	25d	1	1.16mi
1309 N Franklin St Plant City, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,750	$1.68	6d	1	1.18mi
501 W Ball St Unit Bal12135 Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,499	$2.40	25d	1	1.47mi
501 W Ball St Unit Hun303 Plant City, FL	1.0	1.0	614	$1,399	$2.28	25d	1	1.47mi
501 W Ball St Unit War814 Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	614	$1,499	$2.44	12d	1	1.47mi
501 W Ball St Unit 705-13 Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,499	$1.92	22d	1	1.47mi
501 W Ball St Unit 609-02 Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,499	$1.92	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $154,000
3. 2026-04-22
   price $165,000
4. 2026-03-28
   price $179,000
5. 2026-03-26
   status Active
6. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-26
   listed $209,000 Active
8. 2015-12-05
   soldstatus $69,000
9. 2015-11-30
   soldstatus $69,000 Sold 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   CUTE BUNGALOW STYLE HOME, MOVE IN READY. 2012 NEW PLUMBING, NEW KITCHEN CABINETS. FENCED BACK YARD. MINUTES FROM I-4 FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR ORLANDO

10. 2015-10-21
    status Pending 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    CUTE BUNGALOW STYLE HOME, MOVE IN READY. 2012 NEW PLUMBING, NEW KITCHEN CABINETS. FENCED BACK YARD. MINUTES FROM I-4 FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR ORLANDO

11. 2015-10-15
    status Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    CUTE BUNGALOW STYLE HOME, MOVE IN READY. 2012 NEW PLUMBING, NEW KITCHEN CABINETS. FENCED BACK YARD. MINUTES FROM I-4 FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR ORLANDO

12. 2015-09-16
    status Pending 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    CUTE BUNGALOW STYLE HOME, MOVE IN READY. 2012 NEW PLUMBING, NEW KITCHEN CABINETS. FENCED BACK YARD. MINUTES FROM I-4 FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR ORLANDO

13. 2015-09-11
    listed $69,000 Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    CUTE BUNGALOW STYLE HOME, MOVE IN READY. 2012 NEW PLUMBING, NEW KITCHEN CABINETS. FENCED BACK YARD. MINUTES FROM I-4 FOR EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA OR ORLANDO

14. 2012-12-20
    historical
15. 2012-10-24
    listed $65,000
16. 2008-04-03
    soldstatus $55,000
17. 2008-02-19
    listed $60,000
18. 2000-05-10
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$772/yr (+$64/mo · 152.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $1,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$398
• After-tax cash flow: $3,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,896
• Household income: $60,131
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 932.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.29%
• Current HPI: 342.5789
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+316.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $154,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-30 Sold (MLS) $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-11 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-24 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-03 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-19 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.