2438 W Walnut Ave · Visalia, CA 93277

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1955 8,046 sqft lot Est $328k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-upper situated across from the Visalia Mall. This all original home offers comfortable living space with three bedrooms and two bathrooms to accommodate your household needs. Set on a spacious 8,046-square-foot lot, the property provides ample outdoor space for recreation, gardening, or future expansion. Located near Mooney Blvd's businesses, shopping and restaurants, this residence presents an excellent opportunity for those seeking a solid foundation for their next project.

Key facts

• Near businesses
• Near shopping
• Near restaurants

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• NEAR BUSINESSES
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces south; Listed as fixer; Suitable for investment or vacant residential use
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Raised foundation; Shake wood roof
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Living room masonry fireplace; Water heater; Free-standing gas range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($195/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Visalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Visalia Unified (urban): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #273 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,292 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,684
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1645 S Duke St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-5%)	2mo	$345,000	$275	80
2626 W Princeton Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+11%)	1mo	$349,000	$240	73
2709 W Royal Oaks	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+10%)	0mo	$360,000	$249	70
2607 W Dartmouth Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+12%)	1mo	$360,000	$244	68
2634 W Iris Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-6%)	4mo	$325,000	$263	66
1436 S Fairway St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+6%)	3mo	$332,000	$237	62
2805 W Beech Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-12%)	3mo	$355,000	$306	61
2323 S Dollner St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+5%)	1mo	$363,000	$262	60
3325 W Laurel Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+4%)	0mo	$330,000	$242	59
2601 W Country Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+14%)	3mo	$330,000	$221	52
1502 W Tulare Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (+6%)	2mo	$350,000	$252	50
2922 S Linda Vista St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+14%)	4mo	$350,000	$233	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,109
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,544
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93277

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,676/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $86	+0% $16	+5% $-53	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-61	+0% $16	+5% $93	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $79	base $16	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2344 W Walnut Ave Visalia, CA	4.0	3.0	1838	$2,375	$1.29	14d	1	0.05mi
1323 S Crowe St Unit D Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	22d	1	0.44mi
1317 S Crowe St Unit A Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	14d	1	0.44mi
1311 S Crowe St Unit 1317A Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	14d	1	0.44mi
1311 S Crowe St Unit 1323D Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	22d	1	0.44mi
2704 W Whitendale Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$1,895	$1.20	22d	1	0.50mi
1917 W Whitendale Ave Unit 1917 Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,295	$1.24	44d	1	0.66mi
2546 W Victor Ct Unit 102 Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	44d	1	0.78mi
1231 W Whispering Pines Ct Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,895	$1.51	44d	1	0.80mi
3618 W Country Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,095	$1.29	44d	1	0.84mi
1212 S Demaree St Visalia, CA	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	44d	1	0.89mi
1120 W Howard Ave Visalia, CA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	22d	1	0.89mi
3417 W Campus Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	14d	1	0.99mi
815 S Demaree St Unit 33 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.5	890	$1,300	$1.46	22d	1	1.09mi
815 S Demaree St Apt 40 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.5	890	$1,300	$1.46	44d	1	1.09mi
815 S Demaree St Unit 11 Visalia, CA	3.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	44d	1	1.09mi
3936 W Meadow Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,365	$1.56	44d	1	1.11mi
3900-4054 W Meadow Ave Unit 3936 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,365	$1.56	44d	1	1.11mi
3900-4054 W Meadow Ave Unit 4052 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,340	$1.53	22d	1	1.11mi
3432 S Martin Ct Visalia, CA	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,300	$1.36	22d	1	1.12mi
1927 S Julieann Ct Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,000	$1.20	22d	1	1.13mi
1107 W Victor Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,500	$1.46	14d	1	1.14mi
4052 W Meadow Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,340	$1.53	22d	1	1.16mi
1642 S West St Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	44d	1	1.21mi
3919 S Sallee Ct Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	22d	1	1.21mi
3940 S Shady Ct Apt 223 Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	910	$1,950	$2.14	44d	1	1.24mi
3940 S Shady Ct Unit 123 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$1,695	$1.86	44d	1	1.24mi
3940 S Shady Ct Apt 107 Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,695	$1.78	44d	1	1.24mi
3133 W Mill Creek Dr Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	1.31mi
2548 S Watson St Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	1.34mi
1849 S Noyes St Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1497	$2,250	$1.50	44d	1	1.38mi
1650 S Bardo St Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,525	$1.69	44d	1	1.38mi
700 S Linwood St Unit 720 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,650	$1.57	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $245,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 486-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,676 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$15/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,676
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $1,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Visalia Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641160
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $51,672
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6223
• State rank: #273 of 517 in CA

Livability — Visalia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6351

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Visalia, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 163,333
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,985
• Household income: $80,548
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1896.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -371.43%
• Current HPI: 310.349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $245,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,676 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.