8228 Richland Way · Stockton, CA 95209

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974 6,400 sqft lot $191/sqft · 38% below area Est $437k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * HUD Home in Colonial Estates * * Welcome to 8228 Richland Way. A residential property presenting a compelling opportunity for handy homeowners who don't mind putting in a little work. This ranch-style home is poised for transformation, offering a canvas for your vision and a pathway to potential. The kitchen is designed for both casual meals and entertaining, featuring a practical peninsula that offers additional counter space and a natural gathering point. A thoughtfully designed bathroom provides comfort and convenience with a refreshing walk-in shower. Beyond the interiors, an attached garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property is an excellent opportunity

Key facts

• 6,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with opener
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; Irrigation from public district; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 1974
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Curb(s)/gutter(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One-story layout; Front porch; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,179 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,356
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -32.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8120 Independence Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-7%)	1mo	$420,000	$294	82
7506 Richland Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+2%)	2mo	$435,000	$277	76
3239 W Creek	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,545 (0%)	4mo	$390,000	$252	76
2988 Old Ranch Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-2%)	4mo	$445,000	$293	74
7722 Stueben Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-6%)	2mo	$422,500	$290	74
2446 Golden Bear Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-2%)	3mo	$405,000	$268	70
7511 Oakcreek Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-2%)	2mo	$456,500	$302	65
7724 Peppertree Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+7%)	2mo	$435,000	$263	62
7412 Southfield Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+9%)	1mo	$440,000	$261	61
2737 Birch Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-5%)	3mo	$470,000	$321	60
9023 Don Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+8%)	5mo	$420,000	$252	56
2217 Colonial Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+10%)	6mo	$390,000	$229	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,916
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-17,109
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95209

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,227

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $277	+0% $193	+5% $110	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $95	+0% $193	+5% $291	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $268	base $193	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8417 Edgefield Way Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,200	$1.15	4d	1	0.13mi
7912 Richland Way Stockton, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,679	$2.69	3d	8	0.21mi
7921 Montgomery Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,695	$1.51	45d	1	0.23mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 009 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,100	$2.00	3d	1	0.25mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 010 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,075	$1.98	3d	1	0.25mi
8941 Blue Fox Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$2,300	$1.45	45d	1	0.37mi
9017 Don Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.56mi
8035 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,179	$2.31	3d	20	0.58mi
7356 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	24d	1	0.61mi
9130 Cornwall Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,950	$1.32	24d	1	0.62mi
8531 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	946	$2,250	$2.38	3d	4	0.67mi
2805 Plantation Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	12d	1	0.68mi
7167 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,000	$1.75	45d	1	0.71mi
3124 Kelley Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,995	$1.74	45d	1	0.74mi
9227 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1175	$2,500	$2.13	24d	1	0.85mi
2519 Stanfield Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,500	$2.19	45d	1	0.86mi
7722 Woodside Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1925	$2,800	$1.45	24d	1	0.88mi
7719 Alexandria Pl Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	24d	1	0.90mi
2903 Whittier Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	0.91mi
9533 Bancroft Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,300	$2.02	4d	1	0.99mi
3335 Riverton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,402	$2.26	20d	1	1.01mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	1.05mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$2,450	$2.10	45d	1	1.05mi
2829 Smoke Tree Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,400	$1.60	45d	1	1.07mi
6937 Sumter Quay Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,250	$1.87	45d	1	1.08mi
1217 Aberdeen Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,250	$1.53	24d	1	1.24mi
9521 Twin Brooks Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,900	$1.89	4d	1	1.25mi
9521 Twin Brooks Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,750	$1.80	45d	1	1.25mi
3630 Mill Springs Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,000	$1.61	45d	1	1.29mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,165/yr (+$97/mo · 108.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,373
• − Management: −$2,373
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$2,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$658
• After-tax cash flow: $2,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,409
• Household income: $108,675
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 25% Two or more races 23% Asian 22% Black 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -430.80%
• Current HPI: 259.8452
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.