4 Woodland Cir N · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$299,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1940 10,279 sqft lot $229/sqft · 20% above area Est $347k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 1940 brick home nestled among mature trees in the Mountain Lodge Park subdivision, located within the Washingtonville School District. This solid 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence blends classic construction with a peaceful, natural setting while remaining highly convenient to commuter routes like Interstate 87, Route 208, and Route 94. Situated just a short drive from South Blooming Grove, Washingtonville, and Salisbury Mills, you'll enjoy easy access to local eateries, shopping centers, area State parks, and farms. Inside, the open and bright living spaces feature durable wood-look flooring that flows seamlessly into a functional kitchen complete with classic wood cabinetry, a gas range, and a large window framing woodland views. The three comfortable bedrooms share a full bathroom boasting a unique wood-paneled ceiling accent and a tiled tub and shower combination. Downstairs, the versatile, partially finished walk-out basement presents fantastic potential to expand your living space, offering easy-care tile flooring, recessed lighting, cabinetry, and an exterior entrance. Complete with efficient baseboard heating and an inviting exterior featuring a built-in stone fire pit and paved walkway, this home is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a quiet, nature-filled environment with plenty of room to grow.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,186/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3149% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,488
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Arcadian Trl	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,226 (-6%)	5mo	$260,000	$212	81
10 Woodland Cir N	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-1%)	10mo	$87,000	$67	79
14 Silver Trl	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (-7%)	9mo	$185,000	$153	72
18 Paradise Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-8%)	6mo	$280,000	$233	63
3 Brookside Trl	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-14%)	9mo	$265,000	$237	53
15 Grandview Trl	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,388 (+6%)	14mo	$375,000	$270	51
6 Crestwood Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+7%)	14mo	$367,000	$262	50
58 Higgins Trl	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (+10%)	11mo	$350,000	$243	50
14 Sunset Trl	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,143 (-13%)	18mo	$270,000	$236	47
6 Edgewood Trl	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,188 (-9%)	11mo	$305,000	$257	45
12 Revere Rd	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,387 (+6%)	7mo	$330,000	$238	43
26 Revere Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+13%)	7mo	$410,000	$277	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-27,536
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-9,399
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,972/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,674

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Ascension Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,275	$1.52	21d	1	0.12mi
2 Edgewood Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	959	$2,400	$2.50	14d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,999 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,999 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,999 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,999 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,999 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    listed $299,999 Active 1347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1347 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 1940 brick home nestled among mature trees in the Mountain Lodge Park subdivision, located within the Washingtonville School District. This solid 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence blends classic construction with a peaceful, natural setting while remaining highly convenient to commuter routes like Interstate 87, Route 208, and Route 94. Situated just a short drive from South Blooming Grove, Washingtonville, and Salisbury Mills, you'll enjoy easy access to local eateries, shopping centers, area State parks, and farms. Inside, the open and bright living spaces feature durable wood-look flooring that flows seamlessly into a functional kitchen complete with classic wood cabinetry, a gas range, and a large window framing woodland views. The three comfortable bedrooms share a full bathroom boasting a unique wood-paneled ceiling accent and a tiled tub and shower combination. Downstairs, the versatile, partially finished walk-out basement presents fantastic potential to expand your living space, offering easy-care tile flooring, recessed lighting, cabinetry, and an exterior entrance. Complete with efficient baseboard heating and an inviting exterior featuring a built-in stone fire pit and paved walkway, this home is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a quiet, nature-filled environment with plenty of room to grow.

18. 2026-04-12
    historical $299,999 1347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1347 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 1940 brick home nestled among mature trees in the Mountain Lodge Park subdivision, located within the Washingtonville School District. This solid 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence blends classic construction with a peaceful, natural setting while remaining highly convenient to commuter routes like Interstate 87, Route 208, and Route 94. Situated just a short drive from South Blooming Grove, Washingtonville, and Salisbury Mills, you'll enjoy easy access to local eateries, shopping centers, area State parks, and farms. Inside, the open and bright living spaces feature durable wood-look flooring that flows seamlessly into a functional kitchen complete with classic wood cabinetry, a gas range, and a large window framing woodland views. The three comfortable bedrooms share a full bathroom boasting a unique wood-paneled ceiling accent and a tiled tub and shower combination. Downstairs, the versatile, partially finished walk-out basement presents fantastic potential to expand your living space, offering easy-care tile flooring, recessed lighting, cabinetry, and an exterior entrance. Complete with efficient baseboard heating and an inviting exterior featuring a built-in stone fire pit and paved walkway, this home is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a quiet, nature-filled environment with plenty of room to grow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,972 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,021 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,972
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,058
• − Management: −$3,058
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26
• After-tax cash flow: $4,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Coming Soon $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,972 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.