The Barton (147) Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$198,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barton's open concept kitchen, great room, and dining room make the perfect space to host guests. Retreat to one of the three bedrooms or loft upstairs after a long day.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 189 days

🏗️ New construction. The $198,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,745.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-582 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.16%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,745
• List price: $198,990
• Delta: -34.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Fossil Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	2mo	$304,990	$206	88
278 Texas Agate Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	3mo	$328,990	$223	87
124 Alpha	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-1%)	1mo	$213,000	$145	71
220 Sambre St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-4%)	0mo	$239,490	$168	60
460 Sormonne Loop	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-4%)	1mo	$214,999	$151	60
150 Meuse Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-2%)	2mo	$215,999	$149	60
184 Meuse Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-4%)	2mo	$219,999	$154	60
428 Sormonne Loop	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-2%)	1mo	$212,999	$147	59
438 Sormonne Loop	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-4%)	0mo	$209,999	$147	59
168 Meuse Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-4%)	3mo	$218,490	$153	59
291 Texas Agate Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	2mo	$314,990	$187	58
221 Alpha	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+12%)	2mo	$260,000	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-92,255
• Equity at exit: $45,588

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-149,887
• Equity at exit: $26,435

Cash invested: $85,609 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.1 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $287,495 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,586/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $221,543

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-371	-5% $-476	+0% $-582	+5% $-688	+10% $-793
Rent	-10% $-735	-5% $-658	+0% $-582	+5% $-505	+10% $-429
Rate	-1.0pp $-428	-0.5pp $-504	base $-582	+0.5pp $-661	+1.0pp $-742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,436
• Closing costs: $9,172
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,100	$1.24	17d	1	0.14mi
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	53d	1	0.26mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	60d	1	0.45mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	53d	1	0.49mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,895	$1.29	35d	1	0.49mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,000	$2.26	9d	79	0.66mi
541 Alpha Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,795	$1.09	9d	1	0.69mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	65d	1	0.70mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,890	$1.28	47d	1	0.70mi
351 Musgrav Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,895	$1.17	9d	1	0.71mi
240 Sambre St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	42d	1	0.73mi
265 Garner Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,250	$1.45	93d	1	0.76mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	73d	1	0.76mi
184 Unity Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,000	$1.17	93d	1	0.82mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	93d	1	0.84mi
112 Ames Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,800	$1.39	17d	1	0.85mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	61d	1	0.85mi
157 Mammoth Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,795	$1.12	42d	1	0.88mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	93d	1	0.89mi
237 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,900	$1.29	36d	1	0.90mi
298 Denali Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$2,150	$1.21	21d	1	0.91mi
149 Biscayne Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	67d	1	0.94mi
196 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,850	$1.64	17d	1	0.97mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	67d	1	1.03mi
121 Yellowstone Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,200	$1.28	73d	1	1.05mi
283 Silver glen Dr Unit 1 Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,800	$1.04	42d	1	1.05mi
303 Alamito Ave Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,000	$1.22	9d	1	1.08mi
113 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	21d	1	1.10mi
104 Creekside Trl #202 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	13d	1	1.11mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	60d	1	1.12mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	67d	1	1.12mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	53d	1	1.12mi
166 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,750	$1.23	21d	1	1.13mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	64d	1	1.17mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	53d	1	1.17mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	64d	1	1.17mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	73d	1	1.17mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	64d	1	1.17mi
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	93d	1	1.18mi
245 Verano Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1763	$2,225	$1.26	17d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $198,990 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $198,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $198,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $198,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $198,990 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $198,990 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $198,990 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $194,990 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $194,990 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    pricedays on market $194,990 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,990 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,990 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,990 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $199,990 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,990 Active 169 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,990 Active 168 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,990 Active 167 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $199,990 Active 166 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,990 Active 165 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,990 Active 164 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,990 Active 163 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,990 Active 162 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,990 Active 161 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 160 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 158 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,990 Active 157 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,990 Active 156 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 154 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 153 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 152 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,990 Active 151 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,990 Active 150 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,990 Active 149 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,990 Active 148 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $199,990 Active 147 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $219,990 Active 145 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $219,990 Active 143 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $219,990 Active 142 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $219,990 Active 139 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $219,990 Active 138 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $219,990 Active 137 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $219,990 Active 136 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $219,990 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $219,990 Active 130 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,990 Active 129 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    price $219,990 Active 128 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 128 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,990 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,126
• − Property taxes: −$4,586
• − Insurance: −$1,529
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$8,894
• Taxable loss: −$12,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,975–$66,555 screening

The Barton requires significant updates to its interior and exterior, including painting, flooring, and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blanco Vista El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Laura B Wallace Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $214,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Listed $264,140 Zillow