125 Lake Dr · Odenville, AL 35146

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1998 0.70 ac lot Est $132k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Full brick, 4 bedroom, 2 bath home on a little over a half acre out in the country! Nice pond out to he side for a little afternoon fishing and a nice firepit area to enjoy cool nights. This home needs some TLC but could be a doll house when done! HVAC is approx 5 years old. The front portion of this home is a mobile home but as per the owners it has been assessed with the county as a home.

Key facts

• Full brick
• Firepit area
• Hvac

Tags

• FULL BRICK
• POND
• FIREPIT AREA
• HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.7 acres
• Financial info: Down payment assistance available
• HOA & community: Garbage fee charged quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet service availability
• Home design: Existing home; Four-sided brick construction
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; No pool; No patio; No garden/patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Gas oven; Gas stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms located on the main level, including a master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath plus a separate shower and tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceilings: Other (see remarks); No additional built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.7% in Odenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#80 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Odenville Elementary School (436 students, 67% FRL); Saint Clair County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 622 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 41% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St Clair County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $139k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.84%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,312
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Lake Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,788 (0%)	1mo	$132,000	$74	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $18,356
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $68,603
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35146

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,140

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-01-14
   listed $139,000 Active
4. 2025-06-14
   price $159,900
5. 2025-05-17
   price $164,900
6. 2025-04-24
   price $169,900
7. 2025-03-29
   price $174,900
8. 2024-08-12
   price $190,000
9. 2019-05-16
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $5,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $6,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Clair County
• NCES district ID: 0103062
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,324
• Composite: 31.79/100
• National rank: #5887
• State rank: #33 of 129 in AL

Livability — Odenville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #10630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Clair County · 54,404 people
• City population: 17,730
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,973
• Household income: $86,614
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 39.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,158 people
• By 2030: 97,008 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 101,615 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 104,537 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 109,350 · +16.1%
• By 2100: 106,785 · +13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.1) · D 17.6% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -63.2pp · 2024: -64.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.1 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+66.1 2008: R+63.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.81%
• Current HPI: 228.507
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+73.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $139,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $159,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $164,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $174,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $190,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $568 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.