158 Cedar Hill Ave · New Haven, CT 06511

$199,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,390 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

East rock nhbhd. Home shows beautifully, 2nd&3rd flr comb. Feat. 3Bds, 2full bths, lr & dr w/beautiful hwd fls, eik, w/d hkup, tastefully decorated. 1St fl has 4rm/2bed apartment, nice backyard for the children, deck, owner occupants only

Key facts

• Spacious layouts
• Two-family home
• Local amenities

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY HOME
• SPACIOUS LAYOUTS
• INCOME-PRODUCING INVESTMENT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $950/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Rock Community Magnet School (math 9% / reading 27%, grade F, #456 of 553 statewide, top 83%, 449 students, 77% FRL); Wilbur Cross High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 194 statewide, top 78%, 1,633 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,382/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.93%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $446,930
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 Blatchley Ave	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,220 (-7%)	7mo	$449,900	$203	61
292 Peck St	0.33mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,282 (-4%)	10mo	$360,500	$158	60
20 Nash St	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,229 (-7%)	2mo	$740,000	$332	59
265 James St	0.75mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,330 (-2%)	1mo	$450,000	$193	55
464 Blatchley Ave	0.37mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,156 (-10%)	4mo	$365,000	$169	54
287 Lloyd St	0.73mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,365 (-1%)	8mo	$350,108	$148	53
52 Edwards St	0.67mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,348 (-2%)	11mo	$810,000	$345	52
1691 State St	0.58mi	5/2.0	2,229 (-7%)	9mo	$400,000	$179	50
22 Downing St	0.73mi	5/2.5	2,576 (+8%)	6mo	$350,000	$136	46
295 Lloyd St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,621 (+10%)	5mo	$325,000	$124	37
85-87 Bishop St	0.75mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,698 (+13%)	2mo	$960,000	$356	33
14 Market St	0.65mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,054 (-14%)	10mo	$385,000	$187	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $87,229
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $225,413
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,216/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$920
• Net cashflow: $1,901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 52%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,382
Total (2 units)			$4,382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Edwards St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,850	$2.14	14d	1	0.65mi
295 Lloyd St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	2621	$2,400	$0.92	3d	1	0.75mi
339 Willow St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	2163	$4,050	$1.87	11d	1	0.81mi
315 Humphrey St Unit A New Haven, CT	4.0	3.5	2465	$4,500	$1.83	3d	1	0.83mi
31 Clark St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1694	$4,200	$2.48	3d	1	0.87mi
266 Everit St New Haven, CT	4.0	3.5	3259	$4,500	$1.38	44d	1	0.94mi
420 Whitney Ave Unit 424-3B New Haven, CT	4.0	3.0	1800	$4,700	$2.61	3d	1	0.95mi
420 Whitney Ave New Haven, CT	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1800	$4,700	$2.61	11d	2	0.95mi
302 Exchange St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	44d	1	0.98mi
139 Poplar St New Haven, CT	6.0	1.0	1673	$3,100	$1.85	44d	1	1.08mi
115 Lloyd St #2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	44d	1	1.14mi
30 Trumbull St New Haven, CT	5.0	4.0	2668	$5,000	$1.87	3d	1	1.18mi
399 Orange St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1650	$3,200	$1.94	11d	1	1.21mi
395 Orange St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1650	$3,000	$1.82	44d	1	1.22mi
54 Trumbull St Unit 54-1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2250	$6,695	$2.98	14d	1	1.23mi
441 Chapel St Unit 2A1 (shared) New Haven, CT	4.0	4.0	2151	$3,600	$1.67	3d	1	1.35mi
233 Highland St New Haven, CT	4.0	3.5	2200	$3,950	$1.80	44d	1	1.35mi
134 Mansfield St New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1960	$5,500	$2.81	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-10-27
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-10-22
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2025-08-15
   historical
4. 2025-06-28
   listed $299,990 Active
5. 2006-10-04
   soldstatus $270,000
6. 2006-09-29
   soldstatus $26,000 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   East rock nhbhd. Home shows beautifully, 2nd&3rd flr comb. Feat. 3Bds, 2full bths, lr & dr w/beautiful hwd fls, eik, w/d hkup, tastefully decorated. 1St fl has 4rm/2bed apartment, nice backyard for the children, deck, owner occupants only

7. 2006-06-07
   listed $259,900 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   East rock nhbhd. Home shows beautifully, 2nd&3rd flr comb. Feat. 3Bds, 2full bths, lr & dr w/beautiful hwd fls, eik, w/d hkup, tastefully decorated. 1St fl has 4rm/2bed apartment, nice backyard for the children, deck, owner occupants only

8. 2004-02-13
   soldstatus $148,000
9. 1998-01-02
   soldstatus $20,000
10. 1987-06-15
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,216
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,207
• − Management: −$4,207
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $21,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,046
• After-tax cash flow: $17,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+50.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $199,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $299,990 Smart MLS
• 2006-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-29 Sold (MLS) $26,000 Smart MLS
• 2006-06-07 Listed $259,900 Smart MLS
• 2004-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,216 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.