1317 Colts Cir #1317 · Lawrence, NJ 08648

$164,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 685 sqft · Condo · 171 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 2009 Good condition $241/sqft · 25% below area Est $221k · 25% under $614/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1317 Colts Circle, a charming 685-square-foot condo located in the esteemed Carriage Park at Lawrence, a 55+ adult community in Lawrenceville, NJ. This third-floor residence offers a blend of comfort and privacy, ideal for those seeking a tranquil lifestyle with convenient access to modern amenities. Upon entering, you are greeted by fresh interior paint and new carpet, enhancing the inviting atmosphere of this turn-key ready home. The spacious bedroom provides ample space for relaxation, while the in-unit laundry adds to the convenience of daily living. Step out onto your private balcony to enjoy serene views and fresh air, a perfect spot for morning coffee. The Homeowners Association (HOA) covers water and sewer, ensuring hassle-free living. Residents of Carriage Park enjoy a variety of community features designed to enrich your lifestyle. Take advantage of the pool for leisurely swims, or visit the resident lounges for social gatherings. The property is equipped with elevators for easy access, and walking paths offer a pleasant environment for strolls. The community library and clubhouse provide spaces for reading and events, while the gym caters to your fitness needs. Situated in a prime location, this condo offers easy access to shopping, major roads, rail services, and recreational activities, making it an ideal choice for those who value convenience. Whether you are looking to downsize or seeking a peaceful retreat, 1317 Colts Circle is ready to welcome you home. Don't miss the opportunity to own this delightful property in a vibrant community. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and experience the lifestyle Carriage Park at Lawrence has to offer. 1 designated parking spot .

Key facts

• $614 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ben Franklin Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 335 students, 13% FRL); Lawrence Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 797 students, 29% FRL); Lawrence High School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,207 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,130
• List price: $164,999
• Delta: -20.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1316 Colts Cir	0.02mi	1/1.0	736 (+7%)	14mo	$220,000	$299	75
1216 Colts Cir	0.04mi	1/1.0	736 (+7%)	21mo	$101,466	$138	68
1316 Colts Cir Unit K	0.07mi	1/1.0	736 (+7%)	29mo	$209,000	$284	64
1328 Colts Cir Unit B	0.02mi	1/1.0	790 (+15%)	15mo	$215,000	$272	62
1204 Colts Cir	0.05mi	1/1.0	790 (+15%)	27mo	$207,000	$262	53
848 Bunker Hill Ave	1.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+23%)	27mo	$290,000	$345	15
130 Graf Ave	1.33mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+16%)	36mo	$310,000	$391	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-39,772
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-65,949
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$614
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $148,265

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-59	+0% $-116	+5% $-173	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-198	+0% $-116	+5% $-34	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-74	base $-116	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
180 Franklin Corner Rd Lawrenceville, NJ	1.0	1.0	660	$1,706	$2.58	63d	4	0.83mi
515 Dakota Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	725	$2,195	$3.03	70d	1	0.88mi
900 Grand Central Dr Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1401	$2,350	$1.68	63d	31	0.95mi

HOA detail $614/mo · $7,368/yr condo

• Likely covers: watersewerpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $164,999 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $164,999 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $164,999 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   pricedays on market $164,999 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $174,999 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $174,999 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $174,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $174,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $174,999 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $174,999 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $174,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $174,999 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $174,999 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $174,999 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $174,999 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $174,999 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $174,999 Active 147 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $174,999 Active 146 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $174,999 Active 145 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $174,999 Active 144 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $174,999 Active 143 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $174,999 Active 142 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $174,999 Active 141 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $174,999 Active 140 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $174,999 Active 139 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $174,999 Active 138 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $174,999 Active 137 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $174,999 Active 136 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 135 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 134 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $174,999 Active 133 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $174,999 Active 132 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $174,999 Active 131 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on market $174,999 Active 130 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $174,990 Active 129 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $174,990 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $174,990 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $174,990 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $174,990 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $174,990 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $174,990 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $174,990 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $174,990 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $174,990 Active 115 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $174,990 Active 114 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $174,990 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $174,990 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,990 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,990 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,990 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$7,368
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $-475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,425–$10,275 screening

This turn-key ready condo in a 55+ community offers a good condition with fresh paint and new carpet, but could benefit from updating the kitchen and exterior paint to enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated cabinetry
• Minor kitchen appliances — standard appliances

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace carpet — improves living space aesthetics ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ben Franklin Elementary F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Lawrence Middle School F NJ #182/431 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Lawrence High School F NJ #149/399 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lawrence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $174,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $189,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Coming Soon $189,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-03-30 Listed $139,900 MOMLS