169 Tolo Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$298,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · Land · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $308k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two secondary bedrooms each offer their own walk-in closet. Options Include: Covered patio Stoop Fireplace in great room Tub with shower in lieu of walk-in shower at primary bath

Key facts

• Wraparound counter
• Open layout
• Large kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SUNLIT GREAT ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• WRAPAROUND COUNTER
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $210,890 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,445
• List price: $298,990
• Delta: -3.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $147,529
• Equity at exit: $269,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $447,029
• Equity at exit: $580,872

Cash invested: $83,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,417

Max offer price $256,002

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-159	+0% $-243	+5% $-328	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-327	+0% $-243	+5% $-160	+10% $-77
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-167	base $-243	+0.5pp $-321	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,748
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	5d	1	0.38mi
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	18d	1	0.40mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	5d	1	0.67mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	44d	1	0.81mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	44d	1	0.96mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	13d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $298,990 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,950 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,950 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,950 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,950 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,950 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,950 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,950 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,950 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,950 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,950 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,950 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,950 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,950 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $304,950 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two secondary bedrooms each offer their own walk-in closet. Options Include: Covered patio Stoop Fireplace in great room Tub with shower in lieu of walk-in shower at primary bath

16. 2026-04-30
    price $304,950 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    MLS# 1201485 - Built by Century Communities - June 2026 Completion! ~ Welcome to The Ridge at Trinity Ranch! The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Each secondary bedroom offers its own walk-in closet. The Ridge at Trinity Ranch also offers exceptional community amenities, including a pool and playground.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $309,950 Active 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    MLS# 1201485 - Built by Century Communities - June 2026 Completion! ~ Welcome to The Ridge at Trinity Ranch! The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Each secondary bedroom offers its own walk-in closet. The Ridge at Trinity Ranch also offers exceptional community amenities, including a pool and playground.

18. 2026-02-25
    price $309,950 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two secondary bedrooms each offer their own walk-in closet. Options Include: Covered patio Stoop Fireplace in great room Tub with shower in lieu of walk-in shower at primary bath

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $307,450 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    The one-story Laurel 2 plan was perfectly designed for modern living. A welcoming open layout lies at the heart of the home, showcasing a sunlit great room, a dining area, and a large kitchen with a wraparound counter, a center island, and a walk-in pantry. The inviting primary suite is adjacent, boasting a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two secondary bedrooms each offer their own walk-in closet. Options Include: Covered patio Stoop Fireplace in great room Tub with shower in lieu of walk-in shower at primary bath

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,493/yr (+$291/mo · 176.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,748
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $304,950 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $304,950 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $309,950 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $309,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Listed $307,450 Zillow

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.